There's a football game being played today in Eugene, Oregon that has a little bit of significance in the world of college football. With the introduction of the college playoff system this year, teams really can't afford to lose a regular season game if they expect to be one of the four teams left standing when it comes to picking the playoff teams. Now, I know it would be rare to have four undefeated teams make the playoffs every single year, so we likely will get a one-loss team in the playoff (Auburn was a one-loss team in the National Championship last year). However, if you want to guarantee yourself a spot in the "Tournament of Champions" at the end of the year, you really can't afford to lose a single game during the regular season. That's a huge reason why this is a "must-win" game for Michigan State. The Pac-12 is widely regarded by college football experts as the second strongest conference in college football. The Ducks likely could lose a close game to Michigan State and still make the playoffs at the end of the year if they take care of business with the rest of their conference. The same can't be said for Michigan State. The Big 10 isn't really considered a strong conference this year (outside of Ohio State who lost their starting quarterback for the season), so Michigan State really needs a statement win against a program like Oregon to help give the conference some more respect in the college football world.
This game is easily the biggest non-conference game in Autzen Stadium history. The Ducks have never had a highly-ranked non-conference opponent come into Eugene when they were a top 5 team. To say this game is important would be an understatement. It's the ultimate match-up of "defense vs. offense". Oregon's offense is regarded as the most explosive offense in college football and one that could be considered "mostly" unstoppable (the Stanford teams of the last two years would disagree with that statement...). Michigan State's defense is a juggernaut that basically plays in the same base formation all game long and they rely on the safeties to make pre-snap adjustments to stop the offense. It's a simple formula that few teams use (it requires your defensive players to be highly intelligent in order to make the reads), but if your players can get it down, it can make things a million times easier for everyone involved. Michigan State's defense is similar to Oregon's offense. Oregon's offense is extremely good, but it's also easy for players to learn. It requires a lot of read option, spreading the field, and just being a better athlete than the player staring at you from across the field. It's a relatively easy system to learn and Oregon has mastered it over the last few years.
To me, this game is going to come down to the wire. I honestly don't know why Michigan State is double digit underdogs as this game has the feel of a 24-20 win for Michigan State (where the Spartans pull a Stanford and shut down Oregon's offense for the better part of the game, but the Ducks finally score some garbage TD's in the end to make it "close") or a 31-28 win for the Ducks. Most of the experts seem to agree that Oregon has better athletes than Michigan State and they should walk away with the win here. If the Ducks do walk away with the win tonight, it will likely be because Marcus Mariota played the best game of his life. The potential #1 draft pick in next year's NFL Draft has yet to have THAT game that puts him officially on the map (think Johnny Football against Alabama), and this one could be it. All eyes our going to be on this game tonight in Eugene. The winner of this football game will be a heavy favorite to make it to the four-team playoff at the end of the year, while the loser will be looking to make up lots of lost momentum. Either way, we are in for the first barn-burner of the year today in Eugene, Oregon and I couldn't be anymore excited. With all that out of the way, let's take a closer look at a team-by-team breakdown of both the Ducks and the Spartans before they kick-off today with seemingly, both their seasons on the line.....
Team-by-Team Advantage Breakdown
(team with the positional advantage will be listed)
Quarterback: OREGON
Running Back: OREGON
Wide Reciever: MICHIGAN STATE
Tight End: OREGON
Offensive Line: OREGON
Defensive Line: MICHIGAN STATE
Linebacker: OREGON
Cornerbacks: OREGON
Safeties: MICHIGAN STATE
Special Teams: MICHIGAN STATE
Coaching: MICHIGAN STATE
My Final Prediction:
Oregon - 28
Michigan State - 24
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