Hi, hello, and welcome to everybody's new favorite feature of the Ultimate Football Blog! I'm 411mania's Steve Cook, and I'm here to make NFL picks. My good buddy Dustin informed me that I could contribute to this site if I felt like it, and after thinking about it for awhile I thought it would be fun if I wrote about my weekly NFL picks. I have to make picks anyway for offtheteam.com, a message board where I'm defending the NFL Pick 'Em title. I had a pretty good record last year, and I'm hoping for continued success this year. So join me as I attempt to inform & entertain! I consider myself a master of infotainment after all.
Thursday, September 4
Packers at Seahawks (-5): I like this nouveau NFL tradition of matching up two teams that everybody thinks will be good in prime time on NBC to start the season. Usually it's the Super Bowl winning team hosting the proceedings, unless a silly baseball owner decides to get in the way like last year in Baltimore. Fortunately the Mariners haven't affected anything in years because they're a bad team that's smart enough to stay out of the way, so the Seahawks are in the clear to start their title defense at home.
This is the Ariana Grande picture I was allowed to use, as she is singing the National Anthem prior to this game. Apparently there are pictures that I can’t use.
You might remember the last time these two teams hooked up, as it was the game that caused the NFL to finally end the referee work stoppage due to getting embarrassed by a bad call at the end of the game on ESPN's Monday Night Football. Mind you, the Seahawks thought it was a good call, and Seahawks fans spent weeks trying to convince me that it was the right call because of the shade of the light on the ball & the glare in Golden Tate's eyes or some such thing.
The Packers are the trendy pick to go to the Super Bowl & it's easy to see why. They somehow managed to make the playoffs last year even though Aaron Rodgers missed several games, and he's not somebody like Jay Cutler that you automatically assume will miss 5-6 games because he got injured. He should be alive & effective. Eddie Lacy was outstanding last year at RB. That defense though...I heard Dan Patrick hyping up Julius Peppers as this great addition this morning & wondered if DP knew that Peppers is 59 years old.
You know who has a great defense? Seattle. That hasn't changed during the offseason. They also have the 12th Man, and you know that those crazy bastards are gonna be louder than ever before on Opening Night when banners are getting raised & whatnot. If any D & environment can hold Rodgers & the Pack in check, it's this one. Take Seattle & the points.
(Just as a warning, I'm one of those guys that loves to pick teams outright. It's easier for me that way, as I am but a simpleton from Kentucky that doesn't have the money to wager on this stuff anyway.)
Sunday, September 7
Bengals at Ravens (-2.5): I should also warn you that I am a Cincinnati Bengals fan. This affliction has led to years of frustration, stress, hair loss, intoxication, over-eating & countless other maladies that will lead to me passing away long before my life expectancy would indicate. I grew up in the 90s, during which I could at least assume that the Bengals would lose most of their games & not worry about things like postseason football, what seed they would get & which team would break their hearts & end the season in the wildcard round. During the 2000s things got more interesting in the Nati with guys like Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco/Johnson, Carson Palmer, T.J. Whosyourmomma & all the fellas that got arrested every offseason actually managing to win games on a somewhat regular basis. Marvin Lewis was installed as a perfectly mediocre coach that would undoubtedly be better than anybody else Mike Brown could hire. Once that era blew up, the Bengals went back to being the Bengals...well, actually they didn't.
Things have been different lately. The emergence of A.J. Green as one of the game's top wide recievers combined with the development of a defense that can consistently stop teams that's deep in talent combined with other players like Gio Bernard showing some talent have made Bengals fans cautiously optimistic.
Why do I say cautiously optimistic?
o hai
The Bengals are sold on Andy Dalton. And to his credit he's been a fine regular season quarterback. Not extraordinary, especially in this age of juiced stats, but fine. He's been a horrendous quarterback in each of the Bengals' three playoff games he's participated in, all of which resulted in Bengal defeat. It's not like there's a lot better out there (though I will always wish they drafted my boy Teddy Bridgewater), but I think it's fair to say that most Bengal fans are still waiting on Andy to show them a little bit more. Before the contract extension, this was going to be the season that Andy Dalton was going to prove himself to the Bengals. Now, it's the season that Andy Dalton proves himself to the Bengals fanbase.
As for Baltimore, the Ravens did a little work this offseason to try & step things up. Steve Smith is approximately 83 years old but looked good enough in Carolina last season. I don't think he adds a whole lot other than a decoy to take attention off guys like Torrey Smith, but perhaps that's enough. Owen Daniels is a solid TE that will help Joe Flacco out in the short game. C.J. Mosley will probably be the next Ray Lewis because that's just how things go around there. I think the Ravens' downfall is at running back. Ray Rice wasn't particularly great last year even if you don't consider that he's a terrible human being, and Bernard Pierce was a fantasy sleeper that stayed asleep. Pierce will be RB1 this week, but I don't think there's too much of a difference there.
AFC North games are low-scoring and typically go down to the wire. I think a field goal wins this game, and I think it comes from Mike Nugent. Bengals by 3.
Saints at Falcons (-2): The Falcons were horrendous last year after a few years of being good enough to not quite make it to the Super Bowl. I think it'll be a return to form this year...Steven Jackson's still not the answer at RB but if Jones & White can stay healthy at WR they'll remind us why we had them as the best WR duo. White's 32, so he probably has one more good year left in him & this could be it. I have no idea off the top of my head who the TE is, but it has to be a step down from Tony Gonzalez. People really like the draft picks.
The Saints should be good as they usually are when they have their head coach. The defense, as usual, will be nothing to write home about...but hey, there's Drew Brees! He's got a new toy to play with, as everybody's saying Brandin Cooks will be the next great WR. He's got Brees throwing to him, so he's got a good chance. Jimmy Graham's still there & he's still a tight end. Darren Sproles left, but running backs are interchangeable in New Orleans anyway. I think the Saints take this one in a close, close struggle typical of this series in years where the teams are good.
Vikings at Rams (-5): There are some interesting matchups this week that will have a lot written about them. This is not one of them. The Rams are a really good defensive team with nothing remotely resembling an offense. Zac Stacy, I guess. People seem to like him a lot. I fully expect Jim Everett to be QBing this team by Week 6. I think the most disappointing thing about the 2014 Rams is not only did they cut Michael Sam, they didn't bring in Tim Tebow to be QB. Sam & Tebow on the same team would have been the biggest & greatest thing of all time & ESPN would have built an office in the Edward Jones Dome. But NFL teams can't handle distractions brought about by popular football players, so the Rams will be content to suffer in silence with nobody going to the games. Why this team hasn't announced they're moving back to Los Angeles yet, I have no idea.
The Vikings intrigue me. I'm not saying they'll be good this year, but they intrigue me. They added a coach (Mike Zimmer) & a quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) that rank in my top 10 favorite people in football. I mean, apparently Zimmer's a raging dickhead, but the Bengals played their asses off for that man. He's an effective dickhead, if in fact he is one. I think he'll get results in Minnesota eventually. If not, he can come back to the Bengals & I'd be cool with it. Teddy, of course, went to the University of Louisville & was ridiculously effective as a quarterback. This was forgotten during the offseason because the draft "experts" didn't like his core, the color of socks he wore, the music he chose to play during his pro day, his hand size that was the same size of other QBs whose hand size they liked...stuff like that.
I just remember stuff like this:
Ah, memories. He's not in this game though, Matt Cassel is. Cassel was good during the preseason and deserves to be the starter for now. I don't see it ending well for him, but I think this week will be good. Adrian Peterson will be excited to run in a dome for one of the few times this year, Cordarrelle Patterson will break off some big play, and the Rams won't be able to muster up enough points to get the job done. I'm going Vikings here.
Browns at Steelers (-5): The Browns got attention this offseason by signing Johnny Football & having one of the least inspiring quarterback competitions that anybody can remember. Brian Hoyer "won" the job by going 24 for 44 with 1 TD & 1 INT. If you think he's still going to be this team's starting quarterback in Week 9 I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you. He's either going to get hurt because breaking through the Browns offensive line is a lot like breaking through the Maginot Line, or he's going to put up terrible numbers because he's Brian Hoyer & has nobody to throw to. He doesn't really have anybody to hand off to either. This is just not a good football team, folks. I'm going to be irate when the Bengals find a way to lose to these guys or at least have a close game.
So yeah, you're picking the Steelers here without really thinking too much about it. That's not saying I'm particularly impressed with the Steelers. I think their offense somehow managed to get worse during the offseason with the loss of Emmanuel Sanders (who gets to be a Pro Bowl WR now because Peyton Manning) & the addition of LeGarrette Blount to get people high. If Blount goes to Denver instead of Sanders everything's peachy & all we know about Le'Veon Bell is that he's a Steeler RB so he has to be good.
411’s Larry Csonka prior to every Steelers game
Speaking of which, people keep trying to tell me that the Steelers are going to be better this year & all I can figure is people are saying this because they're the Steelers. They're not looking at the roster & they don't know that Ben Roethlisberger is one ridiculous playcall away from mauling his offensive coordinator on the sideline. The defense should be better if the draft picks pan out. Which they often do because they're the Steelers. I guess there are worse arguments to be made...like "because they're the Jaguars".
Jaguars at Eagles (-11): Speaking of which, here are the Jaguars! Actually, "because they're the Jaguars" is my favorite argument to use for why they'll be awful. Their main free agent acquisition that will turn around the offense is...Toby Gerhart. Yup. People keep telling me Blake Bortles won't be a bust, but by the time he starts playing games the Jags will be long out of the playoff picture so it's kind of irrelevant to this season. We'll be talking about him more next season I'm sure.
I expect the Eagles to be really good this year. Chip Kelly's translated to the NFL pretty well so far, which isn't surprising because he's got some talent at his disposal. I'm hoping for fantasy sake that Shady McCoy will be his usual self, but Darren Sproles should help things out there too. Nick Foles looked really good last year, we'll see how things go without DeSean Jackson around, but they're in a bad division & get to play teams like the Jaguars. You're going Eagles here.
Raiders at Jets (-4.5): Derek Carr is your Raiders QB1 since Matt Schaub was in mid-season form during the preseason. They have a backfield of Maurice Jones-Drew & Darren McFadden, which would be pretty freaking awesome if it was 2008. It, in fact, is not 2008. Your wide receivers are James Jones, who would be a lot better if Aaron Rodgers was throwing to him, Denarius Moore, who isn't horrendous, Rod Streater, who has caught passes before, and others. There are four tight ends & I've never heard of a single one of them. The defense was decently mediocre at times last year, it has to be phenomenal this year for the Raiders to have a chance of not finishing 4th in the AFC West.
And then there are the Jets. Geno Smith is QB1 because Michael Vick likes it that way. Chris Johnson is here to keep getting them checks. Eric Decker is around so he can be on a reality show. I'm not really inspired by any of this, but the defense should be good enough to get the Jets to 8-8. They like being 8-8, whether they should be a lot better than that, or a lot worse than that. I think they take care of the Raiders here, though you'd have to threaten me with a taser to make me watch any of this. I can't believe they're sending Nantz & Simms to this game. Did they just not feel like venturing outside the NY/NJ area?
Bills at Bears (-6.5): The Bills are not good. I'm just going to say that and be done with them. Is that ok with everybody, or do I need to spend an entire paragraph complaining about Fred Jackson & C.J. Spiller and how they've combined to ruin people's fantasy football seasons for what feels like a decade now?
Good, let's talk about the Bears, who will win this game. As much as people don't like Jay Cutler, and Lord knows there are plenty of reasons not to like Jay Cutler, it's tough to deny that the Bears are a lot better with him than they are without him. I mean, you could deny it, just like you can deny the Earth rotating around the Sun, or you can deny climate change, or any number of things. As long as Cutler is healthy, the Bears have a potent offense with Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall & Alshon Jeffrey. The defense is dubious at best, but that won't hurt too much against the likes of E.J. Manuel. In fact, they'll make some plays against Manuel & Bears fans will spend the next week telling us how great the defense is now & we should all BEAR DOWN.
What does that mean anyway? A bear's down? You've got a player hurt? I've never understood that.
Washington at Texans (-2.5): Interesting off-season in D.C.. I guess the most interesting thing to talk about here is the fact that Kirk Cousins is apparently better than Robert Griffin III. I think Griffin has higher upside...but he also has a much higher/lower (whichever one's worse) downside because everytime he takes off out of the pocket there's a pretty good chance he'll get hurt. Moreso than other QBs because he hasn't slid since that one time in kindergarten when he went down the slide head-first & landed on his head. That'll traumatize you. But this whole Cousins over RG3 thing isn't any shocking revelation or anything because some people have been saying this since they got drafted.
Also notable is the arrival of Jay Gruden as head coach. Let's compare Bengals fans' reaction to two of the major events of the offseason...
Mike Zimmer leaving to coach Minnesota:
Jay Gruden leaving to coach Washington:
I'm exaggerating, but you get the point. Washington was bad last year & I don't see them being a whole lot better even if they did get DeSean Jackson. The Texans were also bad last year, and even though Clowney's gonna truck some fools & JJ Watt's getting paid & whatnot, I don't see them being a whole lot better either. Take the Texans since they're at home. I would say that Griffin coming home to Texas might motivate him, but for heaven's sake Texas is bigger than most countries & he didn't grow up near Houston.
Titans at Chiefs (-5.5): Regression has been the theme for people talking about the Chiefs this year. Jammal Charles can't be as good as he was last year. Alex Smith can't manage the game as good as he did last year. The defense can't be as good as it was last year. The schedule won't be as friendly as it was last year.
Maybe all of those things are true. At least the Chiefs have something to regress from. The Titans don't. They did acquire the Denver linebackers & the dude from that Sandra Bullock movie while managing to get rid of Chris Johnson, but they've still got Jake Locker at quarterback. The Chiefs might not be as good as they once were, but they're as good once as they ever were, and that's good enough to win at Arrowhead.
Patriots at Dolphins (+3.5): The Patriots are the Patriots. Nothing much changes except the names on the back of the jerseys. The Dolphins are...well...they're something, that's for sure. I don't need to spend a lot of time on explaining this pick, we'll talk more about these teams in later weeks. Well, the Patriots anyway. Maybe the Dolphins if it's a slow week.
Panthers at Buccaneers (+2.5): Tampa Bay should be much improved from last year with the addition of Lovie Smith in the head coaching role, the addition of Mike Evans in the draft, Michael Johnson & Anthony Collins coming over from Cincy & Josh McCown coming in to be QB because...well..why not. Revis Island floated up to New England, but there's enough depth in the secondary to make that not a huge deal.
Carolina probably won't be improved. Those wondering who Cam Newton will be throwing to after all their WRs left should be delighted to hear that Stephen Hill got signed to the practice squad. They've had the same RBs since the franchise was founded, and they're not getting any better. The defense added "veteran leadership", which is usually code for "old guys".
I'm gonna troll my podcasting buddy Jeremy Lambert & take the Bucs here. They can surprise the Panthers at home.
49ers at Cowboys (+3.5): Is anybody surprised that the Cowboys are reportedly bringing Michael Sam in for a physical? People were telling me "oh Sam doesn't fit into their system derp derp derp". When has that stopped the Cowboys before? Jerry Jones knows there's money to be made with a player that has a certain popularity with a certain segment of the public, and he'd be crazy not to try & exploit it to make a buck. If Sam actually ends up being a decent pro, that's a bonus. It's a practice squad spot. Also, the Cowboys defense is expected to be the drizzling shits this year, so there's no reason to spend a lot of time worrying about what fits into a system that isn't working. On offense you got Tony Romo doing Tony Romo things. He'll be entertaining enough to amuse us while Fox makes us watch the Cowboys every week since they're AMERICA'S TEAM. America apparently has pretty bad taste, which explains most of what's on Fox.
At least we’ve got this going for us…
People think the 49ers defense is getting old & it'll be a down year for San Fran, but I'm not quite sure about that. It's a big year for Kaepernick since he needs to prove that he's worth what they're now paying him. Frank Gore is old but he's been old for years and that hasn't stopped him. If, in fact, the team is old, that shouldn't affect them too much in Week 1. Take the 49ers.
Colts at Broncos (-7): These are two teams that I've always held in somewhat high regard. The Colts are just an hour & a half or so northwest of my hometown, and it was tough to not like them when Peyton Manning was doing his thing there. I went to a Bengals/Colts game in the Hoosier Dome back in 2006, and it was interesting to see how the fans made an impact on things by being painfully loud during Bengals possessions while whispering to each other while Peyton ran the offense. I hear things aren't quite the same at Lucas Oil Stadium due to the acoustics, but my ears rang for weeks after that game. I also may have relieved myself in the Hoosier Dome parking lot during that trip, but that's purely speculation & there was a drain right there anyway so it was no big deal. The Colts were rocking & rolling, and haven't really lost that much with Andrew Luck at the helm. Plus, Indy is a fine little town & I like most of the Colts fans I've met.
After Peyton left Indy he went to Denver. Dustin's probably going to delete this column after he reads this, but I've always at least somewhat enjoyed the Broncos. When I was a kid they had John Elway throwing the ball a lot & making life miserable for Cleveland fans. They also had cool orange uniforms & blue helmets.
Those unis & the Browns losing…what’s not to love?
Once Elway retired I stopped paying attention to them for awhile, even though they were still a good team to play as on Madden 2002 & I always added Rod Smith or Ed McCafferty to my franchise teams after a season or two. Brian Griese was a bit of a step down from Elway, and I prefer my non-Bengal game watching to have good QBs. Timmy Tebow was fun for a couple of years, and once Peyton showed up in Denver they were back to being a fun team to watch that would actually contend for championships.
Another thing I like about the Broncos is that my new Twitter buddy Lauren Gardner used to cheerlead for them before moving into the world of sports media. She's good people & has excellent taste in baseball teams. I would say more lascivious things, but I actually like Sam LeCure & don’t want him to kill me. I work at the Reds' ballpark so this is a possibility.
A better looking ginger than Andy Dalton.
As for the game...the Broncos should have a much better defense this year & the Colts are struggling to find healthy people that can play on their offensive line. If Luck has no protection it's going to be tough for him to do what he usually does. I don't see things being too tough for Peyton regardless of who's out there catching the passes, and you just get the feeling this is going to be one of those games where the Broncos send a message to the rest of the league. Take the Broncos & the 7 points, though I can see Luck making it closeish at the end of the game with some garbage time glory.
Monday, September 8
Giants at Lions (-4): The Lions are often hyped as having the most talent in the NFL. Outside of Megatron I can't see how this is possibly true, but that's what people keep telling me. The problem they often run into is the fact they're a bunch of knuckleheads. I know that Ndamukong Suh doing something flagrantly illegal on the football field is the highlight of my family's Thanksgiving every single year. They were one of those teams along with Chicago that should have won the NFC North but couldn't get out of their own way. I don't see Jim Caldwell magically changing things in that regard, but stranger things have happened.
Like Eli Manning winning two Super Bowls. I still haven't figured that one out. I do know that the Giants can always be relied on to either go 7-9 or 9-7 and seem to have their really good seasons when people count them out. Well, they're being counted out this year. Rashad Jennings looks like he'll do the job at RB, but they lost a bunch of people like Justin Tuck & Hakeem Nicks that were somewhat important to the team. They still got Eli though. I think he'll be better than last year, though that wouldn't take much.
If this game was later in the season I'd take the Giants, but it's Week 1 so the Lions should be coming out strong to get their fans' hopes up. And the Giants prefer to lose games early anyway. You gotta take these things into account when making picks.
Chargers at Cardinals (-3.5): I thought for sure that the Bengals would win their wild card round game last year. San Diego was as unimpressive a team as I'd ever seen stumble their way into the playoffs, but sure enough they came into Cincinnati & blew out the Bengals. That's typical. Does it mean anything as far as this season goes? Philip Rivers was much improved last year under the tutleage of Mike McCoy & I expect he'll be fine this year as well. I'm a big Keenan Allen fan. Not a big Ryan Mathews fan. But the Chargers stayed intact & should still be in the wild card conversation this year. They're not winning their division.
Arizona isn't winning their division either, but I like a lot of things about their football team. Carson Palmer is what he is, but you give him Fitz & Michael Floyd & that's not a bad combo. Andre Ellington impressed last year when he was given a chance to do his thing, and it seems like we're on course for more of that this year. The defense is stout, just like every other defense in the NFC West. They nearly made it in the playoffs last year & I have them making it in this year, even if they are the 3rd best team in their division.
Should be a good game if you can stay up for it. I'm going with the Cardinals. They're not as good as Louisville but they're sure as heck better than the MLB team.
And that's the way it is, folks. Follow me on Twitter @OchoSports, and let me know what you think!
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