Thursday, October 2
Vikings at Packers (-9): The Vikings organization didn't want this makeover. They were content to ride Matt Cassel to a mediocre at best season while Teddy Bridgewater sat on the sidelines & waited for his turn. Adrian Peterson was going to get 300+ carries at the age of 29 while Matt Asiata & Jerick McKinnon would sit on the sidelines next to Teddy & talk about where they were going after the game. That was the plan for this year. What we're getting is a lot more fun, unless you're Adrian Peterson or his children.
Too soon? Probably, but what the hell.
Teddy Time is all the rage these days & I couldn't be happier about it. It was a pleasure to have that young man represent my university as its quarterback for three years, and now you're seeing all the draft experts backpedaling from their declarations that Teddy wouldn't pan out in the league because he had a bad pro day, he was too skinny, his gloves weren't the right brand, he was too black, he didn't have a solid enough core, his hands were too small even though they were the same size of other guys that had big hands, and every other excuse they came up with to knock him down the draft board. I was worried that the lack of AP would give him less to work with, but it turns out that the Vikings have 2 RBs that are willing to pick up the slack. People aren't too high on Asiata but he's been getting the job done on the goal line, and McKinnon is a freak of nature that's going to be on Cordarrelle Patterson's level of "did you see what he just did?" sooner rather than later.
I like where the Vikings are heading. I don't like them this week in Green Bay though. Aaron Rodgers told Packer Fan to R-E-L-A-X, and his performance against the Bears in Week 4 backed up his words. In a short week like this you have to like the team with more experience that has homefield. The Packers should have this one fairly easy, though it hopefully won't be like the last two Thursday night slaughters. Nine points is a lot & I'm really tempted to take the underdog here, but the way the Thursday night games have been going indicates it'll be a double-digit win for the Pack. Keep an eye on Teddy Bridgewater's status for this game too...if he doesn't play due to his ankle then Christian Ponder's playing, which means you definitely bet on the Packers.
Sunday, October 5
Bears at Panthers (-2.5): I'm not as worried about the Panthers as everybody else is. Not yet. They were expected to regress this year, and their effort the last two weeks indicates that they indeed have regressed. Cam Netwon's playing like a shell of himself right now. They have no healthy running backs that anybody has ever heard of. The defense has been non-existent.
These are all facts. What's also a fact is that the Panthers played the Pittsburgh Steelers & the Baltimore Ravens the last two weeks. I speak from experience when I say that there isn't a tougher division out there than the AFC North. It's physical football, where you step on the field and had better be ready to get hit in the mouth on every single play because that's the style of football these teams play. There ain't no finesse in the AFC North. If you're running down the field you better be ready to get lit up no matter what position you're playing. The Cincinnati Bengals struggled against this for years until they finally got players & coaches in there that could adjust & keep up.
So it's not surprising to me that a team with a banged-up quarterback, no playmakers in the backfield & a defense that is tough by NFC South standards got their heads handed to them. I'd be surprised if it didn't happen.
I haven't figured the Bears out yet. Bears fans tell me that everything is fine, and maybe they're right. That Buffalo loss wasn't good by any stretch, but the Packers have been the Bears daddies of late so maybe that loss isn't anything to worry about. Brandon Marshall's status is something to worry about, he hasn't looked the same since that 49er game where he really only did stuff around the end zone. 1 catch for 6 yards & 2 for 19 is what he's done the last two games. Not good. Matt Forte & Martellus Bennett have been carrying things on offense, and they're going to need to do more of that to win this game.
This one's a tough one to call. I'm going to lean towards the Bears since they have the points & I think Forte can do some work against the Carolina defense that hasn't really been up to snuff so far against running backs. I don't know who's scoring for Carolina. Kelvin Benjamin & pretty much nobody else so far. I also think the Bears defense can get Cam to turnover the ball a couple of times, which won't make us fantasy owners very happy.
Browns at Titans (-1.5): I'm pretty sure that being forced to watch this game is outlawed by the Geneva Convention. I'll take the Browns.
Rams at Eagles (-7): The Eagles went on the road last week & forgot to bring their offense with them. That'll happen from time to time, but it was disconcerting to see them completely out of whack in Northern California. I liked Dustin's comparison to the Stanford games during Chip Kelly's time at Oregon. When the Eagles face a difficult defense they can run into problems.
The Rams are supposed to have a difficult defense. At least that's what people keep telling me, they sure as hell haven't shown it on the field so far, giving up 28.3 points per game. They took a week off in Week 4, but they're going to wish they took this week off as well. Eagles in a landslide. And hopefully LeSean McCoy will show up this week, that would be nice.
Falcons at Giants (-4): Of course the Giants blew out Washington after I made fun of their fans last week. And of course they're going to win this week too since the Falcons aren't any good when you take them out of the Georgia Dome. Falcons supporters could say that Week 2 was an aberration because the Bengals don't lose at home all that often during the regular season, but it's harder to explain a loss in Minnesota to a team still figuring out who they are. Atlanta knows who they are, they're just not sure if it's good enough.
As for the Giants, who I'm picking this week, we're going to find out who they are soon enough. After this game they get road dates with Philly & Dallas, a bye, then host Indy, go to Seattle & host San Francisco. That's a pretty good stretch. If they emerge from that with a winning record, you gotta like their chances of being a playoff team. Which only makes sense, as we counted them out before the season began & that's how things usually end up when they get counted out.
Buccaneers at Saints (-10.5): Usually I would just say Saints and move on. That's the pick, but both of these teams boggle the mind. Tampa had absolutely no business going up to Heinz Field & beating the Steelers, but somehow the Steelers allowed that to happen. That might be second place to Titans vs. Chiefs on the list of Most Inexplicable NFL 2014 Results. Maybe they've got something with Mike Glennon...there's at least more there than they had with Josh McCown, who is up there with Matt Schaub on the list of Most Ridiculous NFL 2014 Off-Season Signings.
And then you have the Saints, who are sitting at 1-3 & are wondering what the hell happened like somebody that went on a week-long bender & woke up somewhere they have no connection to that they can think of. They're supposed to be good I think. The explanation seems simple...they suck on the road. They've played three games on the road & lost them all. They're home now. They'll be fine this week.
Damn it, why do the Bengals gotta play them in the SuperDome this year?
Texans at Cowboys (-5.5): So Dallas might actually be pretty good this year? Can't say most of us were expecting that one. I also don't think most of us thought the Battle of Texas would feature two 3-1 teams, but here we are. The Texans have defeated nobody of note unless you think the Bills are somebody of note. The Cowboys' best win is over a 1-3 team that we think will be good eventually.
I like the Cowboys here. DeMarco Murray has been a stud & Houston can't stop the pass. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball or throw the ball. As long as Tony Romo can avoid throwing the ball to J.J. Watt they should be ok. Though that would be totally awesome if it happened. It'll probably happen.
Bills at Lions (-7): The Bills have returned to earth after that fascinating 2-0 start that had all of Buffalo abuzz. Not really a surprise, though I guess they're still in contention because the AFC East is pretty godawful this year. Seriously, is there a team in that division that's looked like a playoff team so far? People keep trying to sell me on the Dolphins but I just don't see it. Their head coach just spent a week trying to convince people that Matt Moore could be their starting quarterback. To Buffalo's credit (I guess), at least they have a backup that can take over, and he already has. The Kyle Orton Era is in full effect a week after the Buffalo coach scoffed at the notion that it could happen.
The Lions find themselves in a much more untenable situation. The Packers relaxed & seem to be heading back to where they usually live. The Bears can't be counted out. Even the Vikings are looking frisky. NFC North gonna be a dogfight, so the Lions better take care of business here. And they better get Calvin Johnson to do some stuff too, his fantasy owners are getting antsy.
Ravens at Colts (-3.5): The team that moved to Baltimore taking on the team that moved away from Baltimore. I think that particular point of contention has died down since the Ravens won a couple of Super Bowls, but the teams are good so this is still gonna be an interesting game. Andrew Luck has been looking All-World the last couple of weeks against the dregs of the AFC South, and frankly he hasn't looked that bad against anybody he's played yet.
The Ravens have the reputation of being tough defensively, but somehow they're only 24th best against the pass in the first 4 weeks. They have a grand total of one interception so far this year & only have 4 sacks, 3.5 of those being credited to Louisville's own Elvis Dumervil. So if Indy can find a way to stop that guy they should be ok. The question is if the Ravens offense can keep up...and, well, it's not like the Colts defense is that much an obstacle. I'm gonna roll the dice & pick the Ravens here. I'd like to see Indy beat a good team before I jump on the bandwagon.
Steelers (-6.5) at Jaguars: I really thought I could get away with just saying Steelers & moving on to the next game. But no, those Steelers had to go and lose to another terrible team from Florida in Week 4. Which makes one wonder if they can lose on the road to a terrible team from Florida in Week 5.
God I wish they would.
But it won't happen.
The question here is when the Jaguars will actually win a game. They got Tennessee & Cleveland coming up the next two weeks (which will be wonderful games to watch I'm sure), so there's potential there. If they don't win one of those two...who the hell knows? They host the Titans on Week 16, so maybe that'd be the win.
Cardinals at Broncos (-7): I think these are two of the better teams in the National Football League & they should have an outstanding game in the Mile High City. People are finding it difficult to buy into Arizona, which is understandable since Carson Palmer continues to have problems with his shoulder, Larry Fitzgerald has been nowhere to be seen most of the season, and, well, they're the Arizona Cardinals & people aren't really used to them being good. Me, I think they're good. That defense is strong enough to keep them in pretty much any game, all they do is shut teams down.
The problem this week is they're playing against Peyton Manning & the Denver Broncos. Shutting them down, especially in Denver, is easier said than done. I'd actually like Arizona's chances on a neutral field, perhaps somewhere like East Rutherford, New Jersey in the winter. Probably in Arizona as well. In Denver? I'm not so sure about that. I have some deep concerns about Arizona's offense going forward & I think the Broncos win the game, but the defense should keep things close enough for the Cardinals to cover.
Chiefs at 49ers (-6.5): Two teams that have had their ups & downs in the first month of the season, but who I suspect will be pretty good when all is said & done. KC's looked fine since that debacle against Tennessee, and you gotta like all the positive vibes going on in the city right now. That Royals/As game was as great a baseball moment as I've seen in a long time. Johnny Cueto getting his 20th win was a big time moment in Cincy & I was glad to see it in person, but Royals vs. As had a lot more on the line in the grand scheme of things. Kansas City hasn't had a lot to celebrate lately, what with the Royals being out of the postseason since 1985 & the Chiefs not winning a playoff game since Joe Montana was playing quarterback. People will say "oh it's so great Pirates fans have something to cheer for" & I'll be like "They're all Steelers fans. They've had plenty to cheer about!". KC fans were losing on all fronts, so it's good they've got something going on right now.
They won't have a Chiefs win going on this week. I think the 49ers will take care of business here. Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, it doesn't matter who's running the ball because the 49ers do not let people run. That means Alex Smith has to throw the ball, and who knows Alex Smith better than Jim Harbaugh? You'd like the kid to come back to his old home & do well, but I don't see it happening here.
Jets at Chargers (-6.5): One of these teams has a full-blown quarterback controversy. The other has Philip Rivers playing better than he ever has in his life. The Chargers seem like the safe pick here, especially against a putrid Jet secondary.
Bengals (-1) at Patriots: Even though the Bengals looked like the best team in the league after three weeks & the Patriots have looked not good at all for most of the season, the fact that the Bengals are actually the favorites here confuses me. Remember a couple of weeks ago when I was talking about how strange it was for the Bengals to be in this position? It's even stranger now since the Patriots have fallen flat on their faces out of the gate & look like a team that is eminently beatable by a team on the Bengals' level, even at home.
#OnToCincinnati
I mean, this Patriots team looks bad. I know the defense has been good so far against luminaries like the Oakland Raiders & a Minnesota Vikings team that had their best player kicked off the team two days before the game, but Tom Brady & that offense are not getting the job done. You got an old quarterback, a dinged up tight end, no receivers of note, no running backs of note, and an offensive line that can't block anybody. It's not good. Kansas City absolutely exposed all of their flaws to the point that people think that Jimmy Garoppolo would be a better option at QB1. Those people are insane, but Brady did have himself a bad night, and it's getting close to the point where he sucks & has to retire. I mean, the man did say so himself.
I'm trying to come up with an argument for the Patriots here, because they'll probably win because that's how the NFL is operating this season. But my homerism compels me to take the Bengals. It's a really good thing I don't actually bet.
Monday, October 6
Seahawks (-7) at Washington: Another nighttime home game for Washington. On the bright side they're getting a super long time to get ready for this game. On the down side, the Seahawks have gotten even more time since they had a bye week. The Seahawks are not a good road team. They've shown some vulnerability on the road even this season when they got waxed in San Diego.
San Diego's a good team though. I'm not quite sure about this Washington bunch, they're very up & down. Kirk Cousins was exposed by the Giants as a man that can make mistakes, and certainly the Seahawks can make any quarterback make mistakes. Taking a favorite on the road that's up 7 points is pure idiocy. But we've learned by now that I'm not opposed to idiocy! Going with the Seahawks.
And that's all the damage I can do this week. Don't forget to check out all the other awesome articles here at the Ultimate Football Blog! Slammin' Stevie Cook signing off.
Last Week: 5-8
Season Record: 28-31-2
No comments:
Post a Comment