Thursday, October 23
Chargers at Broncos (-7.5): The Chargers have been in two straight divisional games decided by a field goal...they beat Oakland but got the loss against Kansas City. They defeated the Broncos in Denver last season during the regular season but lost in Denver during the postseason. Each of the Broncos/Chargers games last season was decided by a touchdown + extra point or 2 point conversion.
What I'm saying is this isn't going to be your garden variety Broncos blowout win that we've been seeing the past few weeks. Denver's been cutting through these teams like a hot knife through butter, but the Chargers/Broncos rivalry is a horse of a different color. It'll be tightly contested and the final point margin will be right around that 7.5 number. Tough call, but I'll play it safe with the homestanding Broncos.
Sunday, October 26
Lions (-3.5) vs. Falcons (London game): This game will be airing on Fox at 9:30 AM EST, which is something that a lot of people will complain about. I won't. The main problem I have with the NFL schedule is that they insist on having the lion's share of the games played at the same time, which I know is part of their outdated TV blackout rules, which makes it even worse. Having more games in the 4 PM window, or at other times in general, strikes me as a good thing. I wish they would do more late night Sunday games as well, there's nothing like Sunday Night Insomniac Football.
I've always been jealous of the West coast football fans getting their game on as soon as they wake up. Us East coasters gotta sit through pregame shows that feel longer than the games themselves. I also feel, as a part-time beer consumer that writes about football, that it'd be a lot better for me to get a window of games in before I start drinking. It'd probably make my picks a lot better.
As for the game itself, the Falcons have only played well at the Georgia Dome & one of their home games is at Wembley Stadium. That doesn't bode well. Lions get the win here to keep pace with the Packers in what looks like could be an interesting division race. And that's not even factoring in the Bears getting their heads out of their asses one of these weeks.
Rams at Chiefs (-6.5): The Battle For Missouri! I don't know who would want to win Missouri, in fact I'm pretty sure that the Rams are going to be out of there pretty soon so it's kind of a moot point. Before they do that though, they will do strange things like beat the Seahawks. I'm not sure how much that means going forward, and it doesn't affect my opinion that the Chiefs are a team on the rise & will take care of business in front of one of the best home environments in pro football. I think the main difference in this game will be the rushing game, as the Rams have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this year while the Chiefs have Jamaal Charles.
Texans (-1) at Titans: Some of you might know about my sports podcasting with Trent the Penguin over on offtheteam.com that mostly focuses on fantasy football this time of year but takes a turn towards other sports once football season is over. While doing some shows a couple of years ago, it became evident to me that I needed to follow hockey more closely so I could comment on it. I needed to pick a team & didn't want to follow the Columbus Blue Jackets because I followed enough teams from Ohio & I didn't know what the hell a Blue Jacket was supposed to be, so I asked noted hockey expert Jeremy Lambert for advice. He suggested the Nashville Predators, which made sense because I can watch most of their games on Fox Sports South & they're one of the pro teams affiliated with the ECHL's Cincinnati Cyclones.
The only problem was that the Preds kinda stunk. They missed the playoffs by a bit in the shortened 2013 season & were well off the mark in 2013-2014. Their main problem was not being able to score goals, which is a pretty good way to lose games. Especially when they end in shootouts, which it felt like every Pred game did. After last season it was decided in the front office that changes needed to be made. Barry Trotz, who had been Nashville's head coach as long as the franchise existed, was out. Some of the players who had been there for their entire careers & weren't getting enough done were out. They were replaced by new players like James Neal, Mike Ribeiro & Derek Roy. Goalie Pekka Rinne, hobbled by injury last season, would be back in full effect. New coach Peter Laviolette would bring a more aggressive offensive style to a team that had been passive at best as long as people could remember. Even the announcers changed, with former NHL forward Stu Grimson taking over the color commentary duties & Lyndsay Rowley becoming the rinkside reporter. It can't be overstated how important it is having a pretty lady at rinkside covering games.
You can probably guess which one she is.
All the newness has worked for Nashville so far. The Preds have started the season 4-0-2, having yet to lose a game in regulation and even winning one of those pesky shootouts that have been a bugaboo for so long. It's too early to tell whether this will last, but I'm already planning the parade. It's nice to root for a hockey team that actually wins games!
As for the football team based in Nashville...they're not winning too many games. Take the Texans, even if Jake Locker is back for this game.
Vikings at Buccaneers (-3): You know times are tough when you're a three point dog against the lowly Buccaneers. Teddy Bridgewater's learning that this isn't the AAC, and he isn't on the Louisville Cardinals anymore. I'm not saying Louisville beats Minnesota in a football game, but I will say that Teddy had more help on offense there. Matty Assy & Cordarrelle Patterson aren't getting the job done these days, and who the heck else is there? Is Greg Jennings still alive? I do like me some Jerick McKinnon, and that decision by me to stash him on the bench a few weeks back is looking pretty good for the Omaha Beef right now.
So what's good in Tampa? The weather, probably. Their one win this season was in Pittsburgh, they've lost some close games & got blown out a couple of times. Your typical bad team. This will be a game & it will exist...I'll take the Buccaneers but I really don't feel good about it.
Seahawks (-4.5) at Panthers: Remember when the Seahawks were the undisputed kings of the NFL & everybody thought they'd run the table? It wasn't that long ago. Now they're 3-3 & looking awfully vulnerable. Then you have the Panthers, who looked awful last week in Green Bay. My reasoning for picking the Seahawks last week over the Rams was they were going to be pissed after losing to the Cowboys. Imagine how pissed they're going to be now that they lost to the Cowboys & the Rams. The Seahawks are too good to let this nonsense continue much longer.
I feel like I should address the Percy Harvin trade at some point because on Friday it was like the biggest trade ever to some people. I don't think so. Harvin showed little in Seattle & I don't think he'll show much more in East Rutherford. It won't affect the Seahawks much because it's not like they were using him much anyway. It'll be interesting to see if the Jets keep Harvin after this year, or if they take a look at that contract & say "Bye, Felicia."
An elite receiver?
Ravens at Bengals (-1.5): The Bengals stink so I'm taking the Ravens.
Oh, you probably expect more from me than that, right? Well, what else needs to be said? People outside the Greater Cincinnati area sometimes wonder why Bengals fans are so pessimistic & unable to believe that their team could ever be good. Well, after getting off to a 3-0 start & looking like world beaters heading into a ridiculously early bye week, the Bengals have been blown out twice & played the Carolina Panthers to a tie. We are used to the Bengals disappointing us like this, so it doesn't even really bother us at this point. Well, it bothers some of the fans, but I figure that things are back to normal in the world.
I mean, maybe AJ Green gets healthy again so Andy Dalton actually has somebody to throw to & the running game won't be the only thing defenses need to focus on. Maybe the defense gets back to what they were doing the first three weeks & stop what they've been doing the last three weeks. Maybe Marvin Lewis learns how to be a head coach after over a decade on the job. Some of these things could actually happen & the Bengals could get back on track. Not sure it happens this week though. The Ravens have been on fire since that Week 1 loss to Cincy & are probably the most quiet 2-loss team in the league. They'll be a tough out in the postseason no matter who plays them.
Dolphins (-5.5) at Jaguars: Stop the presses folks, the Jaguars won a game! Now that they got that out of their system, the Dolphins shouldn't have a problem here.
Bears at Patriots (-6): On the bright side for the Bears, they are on the road this week. Da Bears are 3-1 on the road, so going to Foxborough isn't as bad as it might sound. I thought they'd finally win a home game last week, but the Dolphins put an end to that crazy idea. Brandon Marshall yelled at everybody & I guess that's supposed to make a difference because he's supposed to be this great leader now. We'll see. New England has yet to lose at home & had themselves a nice little break after that close game vs. the Jets. I think the Patriots' pass defense makes life tough enough for the turnover-prone Jay Cutler that they cover the spread. If the Bears were smart they'd utilize Matt Forte more in the run game, but they don't seem to like to do that.
Bills at Jets (-3): This is something that was posted on the offtheteam.com message board last week after the Jets' narrow loss against New England by AdamS, a valued member of the OTT community:
the jets are not as bad as advertized
in truth i think a good chunk of their problem stems form facing a murderer's row of qb's...cutler, stafford, rodgers, manning, rivers, and now brady
Putting aside the idea that a "murderer's row" could be led by Jay Freaking Cutler, this to me is endemic of a society where we want to reward everybody for mediocrity. The Jets aren't THAT bad! Just because they lost a bunch of games to everybody else in the league doesn't make them a bad team! They're good!
No. No they're not. Good teams win football games. Good teams don't go 1-6. It's really that simple & I don't think the idea that teams that lose more games than they win are bad is a novel concept. That's the nice thing about actual sports...we figure out who's good & who's bad by looking at the record. This isn't pro wrestling where the guys that lose all the time often do so because they're good at making their opponents look good. Even if you happen to play a good team like New England to a 2-point game, the bottom line is that a good team would actually find a way to win that game. The Jets are not a good team, so they found a way to lose it.
That all being said, this week the Jets get Kyle Orton. If somebody lists Kyle Orton as part of a murderer's row of quarterbacks I'm gonna lose it. I also wouldn't call the Buffalo Bills a good team, but they have beat teams like Detroit & Chicago so they got that going for them. They also beat the Vikings by a point. I think Sammy Watkins has a big game against that miserable Jets secondary & the Bills get the duke. But the Jets are a good team, you guys.
Eagles at Cardinals (-2.5): These were the last two undefeated teams in the NFC, and I wouldn't be surprised if they meet again in the playoffs. Arizona has yet to allow a RB to run for 100 yards, so my hopes for LeSean McCoy continuing what he was doing against the Giants don't look too great. Arizona's defensive numbers look bad, but you gotta keep in mind that most of that came from Peyton Manning going crazy on them. Eagles are coming off a bye week after a game where they blew the Giants out of the water. I'm leaning Eagles because I'm still not sold on Arizona's offense & I think Foles & company can do enough against Arizona's secondary to get the duke.
Raiders at Browns (-7): Remember last week when I thought the Browns would be 6-2 heading into Cincinnati for a Thursday night game? Never mind that, they decided to go down to Jacksonville & lose 24-6. The week after they blew out the Steelers. How do you people expect me to predict this stuff? It makes no sense!
You know what else makes no sense? Anything these two franchises have done for the past decade. What a ridiculous game this is. I say the Browns get back on track & beat this miserable Oakland team by double-digits since they're a better team at home then on the road.
Colts (-3) at Steelers: Speaking of things that make no sense, I was watching the Monday night game & for the first quarter & twelve minutes or so the Steelers looked absolutely pathetic. You know, the way they've looked most of this season. They kicked a field goal to make the game 13-3 with 3:08 left in the half & I didn't think much of it. Then they got a touchdown, then Arian Foster fumbled, then they got a touchdown, then they got an interception, then they got a touchdown to make it 24-13.
All in less than three minutes.
HOW DO YOU EXPECT ME TO PREDICT THIS STUFF?
The Steeler season has been back & forth between decent & miserable all season. The Colts have been mostly good though. Andrew Luck just keeps being Andrew Luck & I don't see the Colts offense making the types of mistakes that Houston did. Andy & the Colts get a big road win here. Well, I honestly don't know if it's a big win because I don't know how good the Steelers are, but Pittsburgh's always a tough place to play.
Packers at Saints (-1.5): Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees? We've had a rough stretch of Sunday night games, but it'd really be shocking if this one ended up being a stinker. Two of the best offenses over the past several years going up against defenses that aren't exactly imposing...sounds like the high scoring football that all the kids like to me.
The one hangup here is that New Orleans hasn't quite been New Orleans yet. If Jimmy Graham can get back to being healthy that'll help a lot, but he played last Sunday, needed a shot in order to play, and did nothing of note on the field. It's tough for me to buy into him until I see him doing something. I do know that the Packers are relaxed & firing on all cylinders, so I'll go with what I can trust.
Monday, October 27
Washington at Cowboys (-9.5): On this week's Ocho Fantasy Football Podcast I'm making a strong argument for Colt McCoy as a sleeper pick. Here's a secret: sometimes I just say things to try & get a rise out of my co-host. We haven't taped yet so I'm not sure what kind of reaction the Penguin will have. I think I have a pretty good idea though:
Hey, Colt did throw 11 for 12 & got a touchdown & led the Washington team to victory over...um...Tennessee! Yeah, the team quarterbacked by Charlie Whitehurst! That's....um...good! Yeah!
You know who's also good? HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS. They keep rolling & rolling & rolling & it's tough to forsee Washington being much of a threat here. Things are going so well that Michael Sam being cut really isn't a thing, and nobody regrets not taking John Manziel because the kid they did draft, Zack Martin, is an important part of that offensive line that's making the Cowboy offense run like a well-oiled machine. In a season that's been tough to predict, the Cowboys being consistently good was probably the toughest prediction to make.
Last Week: 6-9
Season Record: 49-54-3
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