Thursday, September 17
Denver at Kansas City (-3): Denver opened as the 1.5 point favorite here, but even though they won against Baltimore in Week 1 it seems like everybody's jumping off that bandwagon already. You can see why if you saw Peyton Manning's performance. We were hoping he would bounce back from his troubles in the second half of last season and look like something close to the Peyton Manning of old...he's 39 so we weren't expecting the Peyton Manning of old, but something resembling a good quarterback didn't seem unreasonable. We got the Peyton Manning from the second half of last season. He can joke about injury reports & poke fun at the media for suggesting something's wrong with him all he wants, but the bottom line is that he doesn't look like a healthy, top-notch NFL quarterback. He looks every bit of 39 years old & every bit of done.
Fortunately the Denver defense was good enough to carry the day against Joe Flacco & company, and going forward that's going to have to be how Denver wins games. They get a tougher test in a short week against Kansas City's offense, which looked damn good in the first half against a Houston defense that got a ton of hype over the offseason & featured one of the best defensive players that I've ever seen. Travis Kelce has Dustin James already writing his Hall of Fame induction speech. They took the foot off the gas in the second half & the defense let Ryan Mallet get the Texans back in the game, which is disconcerting but nothing that isn't fixable.
I still like a lot of what Denver has to offer & don't think we've seen their best. I don't like them on a short week in one of the league's toughest playing environments after a game against one of the most physical teams in the league. I see the Chiefs showing up big time & getting a statement-making win.
Sunday, September 20
Houston at Carolina (-3): The Brian Hoyer lasted less than one game in Houston and now, apparently, Ryan Mallet is going to be the guy, brother. I'm not quite sure what to make of either of these teams at this point in the season. They could really go either way. To the playoffs, or to 6-10. In the Panthers' case 6-10 might make the playoffs cause it's the NFC South. I like the Panthers here because they're at home. I have nothing else to say here that is either relevant or true.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-10): The Jameis Winston Era didn't exactly get off to a great start in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. First pass went for a pick-six, his rival went & had one of the great debuts in modern history...bad times all around. However, I can't help but look at this stat & wonder if there's something to it:
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota: 0-2
Jameis Winston vs. Everybody Else: 26-0
The Bucs don't play the Titans this week, so you have to figure that they have a better chance this week. Jameis Winston has never lost on the college or pro level to a team not quarterbacked by Marcus Mariota! Surely that means something! Right?
Right?
OK, probably not. The Bucs look terrible & haven't beat the Saints since 2010. That streak continues. Drew Brees wasn't mind-blowingly awesome in Arizona last week but still threw for 355 yards against a much tougher defense than what he'll be facing this week.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-5.5): 49ers looked good at home against the Vikings. They're on the road against the Steelers.
Carlos Hyde is the truth though, I really like that kid.
Detroit at Minnesota (-3): I don't overreact to Week 1 results, but neither Lions or Vikings fans can be feeling too great about their teams at the moment. The Lions choked away what should have been a victory against a good San Diego team, while the Vikings got blown out in San Francisco by what we think is a not very good 49er team.
New England (-1) at Buffalo: Sneaky game here. The Bills got a big win on Sunday & Rexy's got everybody in Buffalo feeling pretty good. He's got a pretty good track record against New England, and that Patriot defense might just be bad enough that Tyrod Taylor can take advantage of it.
But come on. You're giving me the Patriots and a single point? When's that going to happen again?
Arizona (-1.5) at Chicago: Da Bears played Green Bay pretty close most of the game until Jay Cutler made a mistake at a bad time. Sounds like something the Cardinals can take advantage of.
Tennessee (-1) at Cleveland: I think Dustin James has been underselling Marcus Mariota all these years. We rarely ever heard about the kid on this website while he was leading the Oregon Ducks to Pac 12 titles & major bowl appearances & winning Heisman Trophies. Why didn't Dustin tell us more about the future of the NFL quarterback position? Maybe he was afraid of jinxing the guy. Maybe he just didn't see the potential even though it was right in front of his face. That's ok, we all whiff on prospects. But it's fairly obvious after one week in professional football that Marcus Mariota is a future Super Bowl winner, a future Hall of Famer, hell, a future President of the United States of America.
Yeah, we're all in on Marcus. And Vegas is all in on the Titans, who were 3.5 point dogs when the line opened. The Browns had as bad a Week 1 as the Titans had a good one, getting stomped by the Jets. Josh McCown went out with a concussion & people were losing their minds on Twitter when Johnny Manziel threw a touchdown pass. People really really really really want Johnny Manziel to happen. Stop, people. It's not going to happen. Marcus Mariota is going to happen. Enjoy it. Titans win.
San Diego at Cincinnati (-3.5): This matchup worries me as a Bengals fan. I fully expected January 5, 2014 to be the date of the Bengals' first playoff victory since 1991. They were hosting a Chargers team that barely made it into the playoffs due to a bunch of things falling their way, a team they'd beaten in San Diego in December. It was a West Coast team playing at 10 AM their time. Everything seemed right. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton had one of the worst games of his life. Those tend to happen in January.
That's why I'm picking the Bengals here in spirt of previous Charger demons. It's not January. They thrive early in the season when the pressure's not really there. Dalton can get the ball to Tyler Eifert (2nd best TE in the league, right Dustin?) & A.J. Green. As long as the defense doesn't let up late they should be all right.
St. Louis (-3.5) at Washington: The Rams are an inconsistent bunch. They always play their division foes tough but seem to come up short when they're against teams they don't know. Fortunately they played Washington last year & shut them out. So I see the Rams starting out their season 2-0 & in a fashion that will make people wonder if this is the year for them to contend.
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-2.5): Falcons got a big win at home at an NFC East team, but one thing we know about Atlanta is that they're not the same team on the road. Oddly enough, the Giants usually play better on the road than they do at home. I'm going to roll with the favorite here, the Giants may be a bit better than we expected. Even if they're not, I don't see the Falcons as a real contender outside of the Georiga Dome.
Baltimore (-7) at Oakland: The good news for Oakland when their schedule came out was that they got to play their first two games at home. The bad news for Oakland when their schedule came out was they got to play two playoff teams from the best division in football to start the season. Tough draw. The Ravens, to steal a phrase from Jeremy "Hot Take" Lambert, are PISSED OFF & will take this one in dominating fashion.
Miami (-6) at Jacksonville: The Dolphins weren't terribly impressive in their victory over Washington last week...it certainly wasn't the dominant win you'd like to see from a team that many have as a sleeper to make the AFC playoffs. But a win is a win, and they face more easy competition this week in Jacksonville. Technically it's a road game, but I'd expect to see more Dolphins fans in attendance.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-5): Cowboys got lucky on Sunday Night is Football Night, but it's tough to pick them in Philly without Dez Bryant at their disposal. Maybe Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley will fill the void, but the Eagles have more than enough weapons at their disposal & I don't see the Cowboys D doing much to stop them.
Seattle at Green Bay (-3.5): Big matchup here between two of the presumed favorites in the NFC. I don't think the Seahawks are hurt too much if they go 0-2 here, but they'd surely prefer not to dig out of that hole. They'll be ready to go on the road, and the Packers defense is vulnerable against quarterbacks like Russell Wilson that don't make many mistakes. I see this being a field goal game, meaning that the Seahawks are the good bet here.
Monday, September 21
N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-7): I think the Colts & Jets will have the same number of wins after this week. Indy is a much better team inside their own stadium than out of it, the Jets aren't as good as they showed against a weak Browns team, and frankly if the Colts lose two straight to the Bills & Jets to start this season, we should start a petition to move them to a real division so they don't get a playoff spot. [b]Colts[/b] big.
Last Week: 12-3-1
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