Thursday, September 24
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-3.5): The NFC East has become a very confusing place lately. The Cowboys will be missing both Tony Romo & Dez Bryant for an extended period of time. The Eagles...well, nobody's really sure what's going on with the Eagles but we can tell that they're not very good right now. Dallas & Philadelphia were expected to decide the division crown amongst themselves while the Giants languished in mediocrity & Washington was more of a dumpster fire than a football team. Now? Who knows. The NFC East could very well be this year's NFC South, with the division winner struggling to reach .500.
The Giants have at least been close in their two losses while Washington's actually managed to win a game in convincing fashion against a team a lot of people were hyping as something after Week 1. You can't count these teams out yet, and this early-season Thursday night game could be big in deciding a playoff spot. It could also be ugly as sin. I fully expect a low-scoring game here, and even though the Giants might win I think Washington is the smart bet.
Sunday, September 27
Pittsburgh (-1.5) at St. Louis: Pirates vs. Cardinals? Nah, we got the Rams hosting the Steelers here. Even though St. Louis followed up their victory over Seattle by getting smacked around by Washington, it's easy to see why the Steelers aren't favored by too many points here: the Rams are good at home. Unfortunately, I think the Steelers are good enough to get it done. Sure hope I'm wrong. It's not often I root for St. Louis in some kind of sport, but I am here. Weird.
San Diego at Minnesota (-2.5): I forgot to include my Vikings pick in the actual column last week. Talking about them & Detroit made me too depressed to continue with it. I'm feeling better about the Vikings this week, the Lions have made both of these teams look pretty good. I'm liking the Vikings here because their defense is good at creating turnovers & the Chargers are good at turning the ball over.
Tampa Bay at Houston (-6.5): Bucs went to New Orleans and stunned the Saints last week. So they've got that going for them. The Texans don't have much going for them except that we think the teams they've lost to so far are pretty good. No Arian Foster yet. That's ok though. I'm not sure the Bucs will get a lot done on offense against JJ Watt & company, so even though I don't like the spread I think the Texans still got it.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets (-2.5): People are very high on the 2-0 New York Football Jets right now, and very low on the Philadelphia Eagles. This line opened with Philly as the 2.5 point favorites & now they're 2.5 point dogs. I want to say this seems incorrect to me, but I've seen both teams & frankly the Jets look like the better team right now. Maybe it doesn't end that way, but right now you gotta go with the hot hand.
New Orleans at Carolina (-3): Speaking of hot hands, you keep riding the Panthers here. I will admit I'm mad at the Saints knocking me out of a Survivor pool. How do you lose to Tampa Bay at home? Ridiculous.
Jacksonville at New England (-13.5): How bout dem 1-1 Jags? I like it when perennial doormats turn things around and as much as we all enjoy making fun of Jacksonville it'd be pretty cool if they were competitive one of these days. And looking at that AFC South...if the Colts don't stop being terribad that division is anybody's ballgame. Who's to say the Jaguars can't ride Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, T.J. Yeldon & a young core of talent with potential to more wins than anybody expected of them? It could happen.
But not this week. Patriots are going to win...but believe it or not I think you gotta go with the Jaguars and the points here. The Pats aren't blowing people out like we expected because their defense is keeping people in games, and if Bortles can stay upright for most of the fourth quarter he should be able to get enough garbage time points for the Jags to beat that spread.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-2.5): Ever since moving to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have never started a season 0-3. That's pretty amazing and something that no other team in the league can claim. They look to avoid that fate in their home opener against Cincinnati, a team that's beaten the Ravens four out of the last five times they've taken the gridiron. Bengals/Ravens games are usually pretty darn close because they're AFC North games & that's how things go. Not many points, teams beating the hell out of each other. As much as I'd love to be a homer & pick the Bengals because we have the best player in the league at every single position (just ask Dustin James, he'll tell you), I gotta go with the Ravens. I thought they were a touch overrated by preseason experts, but they're going to win a good number of games. And honestly, it's not like I need the Bengals to start 3-0 & fall off a cliff again.
Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5): Josh McCown is going to be starting for the Browns this week, which ruins the Class of 2014 matchup we were looking forward to with Johnny Manziel & Derek Carr. Don't look now, but that group of QBs isn't looking too darn shabby in their sophomore year. Manziel & Carr led their teams to wins last week, as did Blake Bortles with the Jaguars & Teddy Bridgewater with the Vikings. That class got a lot of flack from people at the time...people hated Bridgewater because he had a bad pro day, Manziel because he was a drunkard, Carr because he was David Carr's brother, and Bortles because he got drafted by the Jaguars. Maybe the experts end up being proven right, I just thought it was cool to see all those guys win last week.
Did anybody see the Raiders' victory coming? After they got blown out Week 1 by Cincinnati none of us gave them much of a chance against Baltimore, but the young, gutsy Raiders pulled it out. Sometimes you need to get your teeth kicked in to get things right, and maybe the ass whooping the Raiders received from the Bengals was what Jack Del Rio needed to get people on the right page. This is likely an overreaction to last week & the Josh McCown news, but I think the Raiders are the right pick here. If they lose it'll be by a field goal in some crappy 6-3 game or something.
Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennesssee: Interesting matchup here pitting the #1 QB in QB rating against #34. You would have guessed that Andrew Luck would be #1, but you would have been wrong. Marcus Mariota's on top of the heap & Luck's down at the bottom. Will that last? No. Is it fun to point out? Sure! The Colts have beaten the Titans 12 out of the last 13 times & I expect that trend to continue here. Indy hasn't looked great, but it's tough to push a team that lost to Cleveland over them.
Atlanta (-2) at Dallas: Both these teams sitting pretty at 2-0 this week. The Falcons already have two narrow victories over NFC East teams & Vegas seems to be predicting the same thing here. I think I will predict the same thing as well. I'm not sure Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, Quincy Carter or whoever the Cowboys throw out there will get them past the Falcons.
San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5): This line should probably be higher. San Fran got blown out last week in Pittsburgh & the Cardinals have been one of the most complete teams so far this season. Great homefield advantage too. I'd jump on this number no questions asked.
Chicago at Seattle (-14.5): Neither of these teams are exactly off to an awesome start. I don't think people outside of Chicago are surprised that the Bears have stumbled out of the gate. Jay Cutler will be out due to injury, but does it really matter? Probably not, they'll get the same ineffective QB play out of Jimmy Claussen, possibly worse. John Fox has to be longing for the days of Jake Delhomme & Chris Weinke QBing his Carolina Panther teams at this point.
The Seahawks are also 0-2, but we don't really worry about them too much. The Rams loss wasn't too shocking because the Seahawks usually don't play well in St. Louis, and the other loss was in Lambeau Field & nobody's going to get outraged over that. The Seahawks come home this week, and yes 14.5 points is a lot of points, but Seattle has one of the best homefield advantages out there & the Bears are flat-out bad. Plus they got Kam Chancellor coming back, Jimmy Graham's going to get what he wants, and Mama Lynch is gonna be running the offense pretty soon. I couldn't be less worried about Seattle right now. They lost to two good teams on the road. So?
(Now, if they lose this game...then I'll be worried.)
Buffalo at Miami (-3): I really want to like the Dolphins this season but they're making it tough. They beat Washington but not by a whole lot, and then they went & lost to Jacksonville. It should have been a dominating 2-0 performance against two apparently bad teams to send a message, instead it's a mediocre 1-1 & nobody's really impressed. Jarvis Landry impresses me though. That kid will make Ryan Tannehill look real, real good.
At least Rex Ryan has helped make Buffalo entertaining again. He's talking all kinds of smack like always, the Bills are trading backup QBs to the Cowboys because why not, and Tyrod Taylor's got a top 10 QB rating right now. That won't last, but it's nice to see. I'm still not in love with the Dolphins but I'll roll with them bouncing back at home.
Denver (-3) at Detroit: I guess Peyton Manning vs. Megatron sounded like a good enough matchup on paper for NBC, but man this seems like one of the least inspired SNF matchup choices since they got the package. The Lions are 0-2 & Matthew Stafford got so beat up by the Viking defense on Sunday that we're not 100% sure he'll be available for this week's game against one of the best pass rushing teams in the league. Sounds like a fun time.
So Peyton Manning came back strong last week, huh? It kind of reminds one of the famous song lyrics "I'm not as good as I once was, but I'm as good once as I ever was." You can't expect the kind of showing he had in Kansas City every single week, but he should be good enough this week to get the Broncos enough points. I just don't see the Lions offense getting much done against that Denver defense.
Monday, September 28
Kansas City at Green Bay (-6.5): The Chiefs are getting a lengthy break between games here, as their last game was on Thursday night against Denver. Will the rest help them in Green Bay? Nah. The Packers are already relaxed, and I'll be damned if kissing Dustin James' ass is going to cost me two weeks in a row.
Last Week: 6-10
2015 Record: 18-13-1
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