So yeah, I'm doing all right.
Last week was all right for the picks too, a solid rebound from the disaster that was Week 2. We're riding high right now, so let's hook em up!
Thursday, October 1
Baltimore (-2.5) at Pittsburgh: The 0-3 Ravens get three days to prepare for a Pittsburgh team missing their quarterback. Baltimore/Pittsburgh games are usually defensive slogs that people on Twitter bitch & moan about. I typically like them because I was raised in the AFC North, a division where people actually play defense, but even by the low offensive standards these games usually have, this one is setting up to be a pretty bad Thursday Night Stinker.
I also don't like trying to pick this game. Short week for the Ravens. Mike Vick at QB for the Steelers. There's not a whole lot to like about either of these teams at the moment, so take the points & the home team. Steelers, I guess.
Sunday, October 4
NY Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami: LONDON GAME. LONDON GAME. ALERT. ALERT. WE HAVE A LONDON GAME. Not exactly good news for the Dolphins, who are doing the opposite of living up to expectations in the early weeks of the 2015 season. Ryan Tannehill hasn't made the next step, the defense isn't stopping anybody, and with the improvement of the Bills & Jets under their new head coaches so far, one assumes it's pretty likely that Dolphin ownership will try the same thing sooner rather than later. The Jets had a terrible first half against the Eagles but did fine in the second & I think they're the pick here.
I'm not a huge fan of the London Game in general, but at least this one's at 9:30 and increases the time spent watching football in a given day. I'm still looking forward to the day when the NFL figures out that they don't have to have 10 games at 1 PM every Sunday & spreads them out even more. Sunday Monday Football at 12 AM Monday morning is coming, people. Just a matter of time.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-9): The Colts didn't look great in Tennessee, but at least they got a win. They haven't lived up to their billing so far but they won't need to at home against the Jags. Andrew Luck is day to day with a shoulder, but everybody's day to day so we don't worry about that. And even if Luck's out for some reason, don't we trust Matt Hasselbeck against the Jaguars?
Oh, sorry. Wrong GIF. I meant this one:
Much better.
Houston at Atlanta (-6.5): The Falcons, along with the Carolina Panthers, are trying to lead an NFC South resurgence this season. They've been successful so far, running the table against three NFC Least teams. Interesting fact: The Falcons reached the NFC Championship Game the previous two times in franchise history they've started 3-0. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.
I want to like the Texans, and I think their prospects will improve once Arian Foster comes back. Right now as I write this, he's going to be a game time decision. I can't tell you guys to pick the Texans based on a game time decision, so we have to side with the Falcons here. For now.
Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay: Speaking of the NFC South, here's another 3-0 team in the Carolina Panthers. it's been the Cam Newton Show so far this season, and sometimes that's all you need. They didn't even need Cam to beat Tampa twice last season. The Bucs have looked bad in two out of three games so far...the one they looked good in was against a fellow NFC South team. Hmmm. That's the best argument I can come up with for Tampa, the Panthers should be good in the hood here. Look for Jeremy Lambert's hot take cornerback dude to pick off Jameis Winston & make Todd Bergman cry.
NY Giants at Buffalo (-5.5): Shades of Super Bowl XXV, one of the first NFL games I can clearly remember watching and still one of the greatest. OK, so there's no Jeff Hostetler or Jim Kelly here, but Eli Manning's probably better than Hostetler, right? I don't think we can argue for Tyrod Taylor over Jim Kelly just yet, but I did pick him up for my dynasty league this week since my starter Big Ben got hurt & my backup is Colin Kaepernick and is terrible. So that's good times. The Giants seem to be turning things around but I kinda like what the Bills are doing and am rooting for it to continue here.
Oakland (-3) at Chicago: You know times are tough when you're a home dog against the Oakland Freaking Raiders, but that's life in Chicago right now. Jimmy Clausen is probably still going to be the Bears QB1 this week, and as long as that's the situation it's tough to buy in. Interesting statistic: Clausen's teams are 1-11 in games that he has started in the National Football League. Another interesting statistic: Clausen is 2nd worst all time in yards per pass attempt among QBs that have attempted at least 300 passes. Who was worse?
I still go into epileptic fits every time I remember the Akili Smith Era. The horror. The horror. That alone is enough reason to pick the Raiders this week, but I should also mention that the Raiders are looking dangerously close to a pretty decent football team these days. We can't get too excited because it's not like they blew Cleveland out of the water or anything, but Derek Carr & Amari Cooper look like they were made for each other & Latavius Murray's getting things done at running back. The defense hasn't been good and that's why they won't contend for the playoffs this season, but surely they can limit the bleeding this week.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington: Titanic struggle here in the NFC Least Division. The Eagles kinda got back on track this week against the Jets and all my Eagle fan buddies that have never even been to Philadelphia are pumped because Kiko Alonso will probably play again this season. Washington is still trotting Kirk Cousins out there, so the Eagles don't seem like a terrible pick. I would rather watch a Best of the 2015 Cincinnati Reds tape than this game. Two overblown franchises that don't accomplish nearly as much as their fans would tell you.
Kansas City at Cincinnati (-4): Kansas City finally had a wide receiver get a touchdown last week. That was pretty cute. Cincinnati had a couple of them as well, here's my favorite:
The Bengals went into Baltimore & got a big division win against a team that was expected to go all the way and is currently looking for answers. Something like a letdown game could be expected by a casual observer this week due to the rivalry aspect of the Baltimore game, but Cincy has been in these situations before & knows there's a long season ahead & the opponents keep getting tougher. Sure, they get to go home for the next two games, but Kansas City & Seattle are playoff-level competition that can beat any team in the league. Plus, as much praise & positive press clippings as they get, there are just as many pundits out there that won't believe in them until they get a win in the playoffs. And frankly, as a fan I won't fully believe in them until they get a win in the playoffs. Been burned too many times.
The Chiefs have lost two straight games, but we all know the Broncos & Packers are among the elite teams in the league so that doesn't give us reason to worry. If they fall to 1-3 this week there's a chance for them to recover in the four weeks before their bye. Three home games with the Bears, Lions & Rothelisbergerless Steelers, and a road game in Minnesota should at least get them to 4-4 before the bye, which won't knock them out of contention by any means. This is my attempt to make Dustin James feel better about the Bengals whooping his team this week and making him the William Regal to my Mr. McMahon.
Cleveland at San Diego (-7.5): I'm not really feeling the Chargers so far this season. 7.5 is a lot of points to give them, I think the Browns lose a close game in the last minutes by doing something stupid. Sounds like a Cleveland thing to do, right?
Green Bay (-8.5) at San Francisco: Aaron Rodgers gets to go home to San Francisco. He grew up a fan of the 49ers & they had a pretty good chance to pick him in the 2005 NFL Draft because they had the very first pick. They went with Alex Smith instead. It didn't work out. You might hear about this while watching this game....the announcers will surely be looking for something to talk about after the Packers put it away early.
Minnesota at Denver (-6.5): The Broncos are 3-0 and the days worrying about Peyton Manning appear to be over. At least until his next bad game. Minnesota has the 16th best pass defense in the league after three games, mostly because they've played the 49ers (who ran the ball all day instead of having Kapernick throw...a wise choice), the Lions (a team with one passing option) & the Chargers (a turnover machine of a football team). As much as I would love for Peyton to pass the torch to my boy Teddy Bridgwater, I don't see it happening with that Denver pass defense. Maybe Adrian Peterson will run all over the place, but I think the Broncos are the pick here. Watch out for that Viking defense getting to Peyton though...they've had their way with Matt Stafford & Phil Rivers the last two weeks & Peyton's not exactly the least fragile guy in the league these days.
St. Louis at Arizona (-7): The Arizona Cardinals are a really good football team. Every sports pundit has been sure to mention this for about a minute this week while slobbering all over the sexier Patriots & Packers for the rest of their time on air. The Cardinals don't draw nationally. It wasn't until recently that you had more Cardinal fans in Arizona than Cowboys fans. They've been to one Super Bowl. So there are plenty of excuses for people to ignore the Cardinals. One gets the feeling watching this team that we'll run out of excuses pretty soon. Carson Palmer lives up to his immense potential when he entered the NFL in 2003 whenever he's physically able to take the field. Larry Fitzgerald found himself the Fountain of Youth. The defense is your typical NFC West defense that's pretty much impossible to score on. With the Rams' offense being what it is (ineffective), the Cardinals are as safe a pick as there is this week.
Dallas at New Orleans (-4): This game looked pretty appealing on paper when it was Tony Romo & Dez Bryant vs. Drew Brees, so I don't blame NBC for selecting it for SUNDAY NIGHT IS FOOTBALL NIGHT. Now with Brandon Weeden running the Cowboys offense, this has the potential to be bowling shoe ugly. I keep wanting to believe in Brees & the Saints, but they have foresaken us in recent memory. Six straight losses in the Superdome, formerly one of the most effective homefield advantages in football. Before last November's loss to Baltimore on a Monday night, they'd won fourteen straight primetime home games. These are not the Saints of old, and we can't treat them as such.
However, it's Brandon Weeden. Eight straight losses as a QB1. Granted, seven of those were with the Browns, but I don't think anybody is too thrilled about his taking the reins of the Cowboys. That's why Vegas has a team 31st in ESPN's Power Rankings as a four-point favorite here. Both of these teams need to win here and I don't trust either one...fine, I'll take the points & the Cowboys.
Monday, October 5
Detroit at Seattle (-9.5): I might actually end up watching Raw this week...no, I probably won't because I'll probably need Russell Wilson & the Seattle defense to do things for my fantasy team. They should do pretty well this week since the Lions just don't look like a very good football team. Even worse, they look like a pretty darn predictable football team. Throw the ball to Calvin Johnson, run a bad rush, rinse, repeat. Teams like Detroit play checkers while the elite like Seattle play chess. Take the Seahawks and end the week on a good note.
Last Week: 10-6
2015 Record: 28-19-1
No comments:
Post a Comment