Thursday, October 22
Seattle (-6) at San Francisco: Are we at the point where Seattle actually needs to press the panic button?
We're getting pretty close. They're blowing 4th quarter leads every week, the offense hasn't been consistent, the defense is leakier than it used to be, dudes are having car accidents & rumors about how they happen aren't being automatically dismissed...it's been an interesting time in Seattle. The only reason I'm picking the Seahawks as a 6 point favorite this week is Colin Kaepernick. Kaep's rebounded from an abysmal start to his season the last two weeks, but his numbers against Seattle are terrifying for 49er fans. 53.7 QB rating, 52.5 completion percentage, 2 TDs & 7 INTs. Not good. Really good if you're the Seahawks and looking for answers, though.
Sunday, October 25
Buffalo (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville: It's a London game! It's at 9:30 in the morning! It's the Bills & the Jaguars! It's streaming on Yahoo! Dustin won't mind if I use this one:
I'm never sure betting on the Jaguars is a good idea, but there's all sorts of weird stuff going on with the Bills right now & going to London probably won't help things.
Cleveland at St. Louis (-5.5): The Browns' last three games have been decided by three points. They're 2-4 but they've only been blown out once, in Week 1 by a Jets team that's better than what was advertised. They did a good job getting things going last week in a losing effort against a top defense in Denver, and I think they can replicate that against St. Louis. Gary Barnidge just continues to catch things, and Josh McCown is making everybody other than Lambert forget about that Johnny bum.
There's one problem that keeps me from pulling the trigger on the Cleveland pick. His name is Todd Gurley, and he's going against the worst run defense in the NFL. Teams know that the way to get to the Browns is by running the ball, and Jeff Fisher knows that Nick Foles & his passing game aren't going to get it done anyway. So expect Gurley to get the ball early & often, and expect the Rams to get the win & get to .500. This should be a pretty decent game though, a lot better than you'd typically expect from the Browns & Rams.
Pittsburgh (-2) at Kansas City: I warned you all last week. I told you that the Steelers would beat the Cardinals and end their undefeated streak. It doesn't matter if it's Big Ben or Mike Vick or Landry Clarke at quarterback, the Steelers will find a way to win. My Bengals are 6-0, but I'm still really worried about this situation. I'm not quite in a panic yet, but my finger's hovering over the button.
It might be Landry Clarke this week, but it doesn't really matter. The Steelers can run all over KC all day every day. And let's not knock Landry Clarke too much, he did land Tyra Collette for one season of Friday Night Lights. Don't get me wrong, Landry was a good dude, but him getting with Tyra one season & Jess the next season was stretching believability a bit. He didn't have that kind of game. I'm pretty sure Jeremy Lambert & I discussed this at some point in our FNL podcast series that y'all should check out. Watch the show too while you're at it.
Houston at Miami (-4.5): I imagine Dolphins fans were watching last week's game looking like this:
We do have to keep in mind that Miami was playing the Tennessee Titans, one of the worst teams in football. This week the Dolphins return home to play the Houston Texans, another one of the denziens of the macabre AFC South. The Texans looked pretty good last week on the road, but it was against the Jaguars so it's difficult to get excited about. I'll keep riding with the Dolphins against these AFC South teams.
NY Jets at New England (-9): My reflex action whenever I see a Jets/Patriots game with a huge point spread is to take the Patriots. I usually end up being wrong. The last four games in this series have been decided by three points or less, and they featured a Jets team that was playing a lot worse than this version. Don't get me wrong, the Patriots are still PISSED OFF and should still win this one on their road to 19-0, but I think the Jets make it closer than Vegas expects.
Minnesota (-2.5) at Detroit: The Lions finally got off the schnide last week & got a win! Yeah, it was against the sorry, no-account Bears, but it still counts as a win by National Football League rules. Megatron was Megatron again, all was right with the world. Will those good times continue this week against AD, Teddy, Zim & the Vikings? This is the kind of game that will let us know if the Vikings are a legit playoff contender or not. I'm not sure if anybody other than Dustin James & myself have been hyping the Vikings as a potential wild card team, but an easy win over the Lions would go a long way in making us look good. I think the Vikings do win, mostly because I see the Lions giving up 120 rushing yards per game and I see Adrian Peterson on the Vikings' roster.
Atlanta (-4.5) at Tennessee: The Falcons lost in New Orleans on Thursday night, but that's not something worth worrying about. We knew they weren't going undefeated & they're still a lot further along than anybody really expected...losing in New Orleans is something that usually happens even if you're a good team. They still have Devonta Freeman & I swear I saw Roddy White catch something last week. You worry about that defense against better teams...but they're not playing a better team this week.
It's not going to get any better for them with Marcus Mariota missing some time. Zach Mettenburger isn't terrible, but let's be honest, Aaron Rodgers himself might even have a hard time getting something going with Tennessee's offensive collection of offensive talent. Yes I meant to use offensive twice in that sentence. Falcons should take this one pretty easily.
Tampa Bay at Washington (-3.5): Do I have any thoughts on this?
I mean, you're asking me to pick between Jameis Winston & Kirk Cousins. That's like choosing between getting shot in the head & shot in the heart. Result's the same. I guess gimme the Bucs and the points. Doug Martin's been good lately & Washington's been giving up tons of points to running backs the last two weeks.
New Orleans at Indianapolis (-4.5): I had written off the Saints a couple of weeks ago but they're starting to show signs of life. Notably, they're beating teams like the Falcons at home in prime time. That was always something that went without question until recently, so the fact they're doing that is a good sign. Drew Brees found a connection with Benjamin Watson and he's putting up Jimmy Grahamesque numbers. Watson's a little long in the tooth so I don't expect that to continue, but my OTT Official Fantasy Football League team is going to ride on that for as long as it can.
We had Owen Daniels as our TE, so we had to do something.
Meanwhile, the Colts actually gave the Patriots a pretty good game. But they also gave us this:
I mean...what in the actual fuck? Head Coach Chuck Pagano claimed it was a ploy to draw the Patriots offside or make them have too many men on the field. Punter Pat McAfee explained that the center in the play hadn't been involved in practicing the play beforehand. (Griff Whalen by the way. When your play is dependent on somebody named Griff Whalen you're heading down a bad road.) I'm not sure which explanation is more ridiculous, but when Jim Irsay fires Chuck Pagano at the end of the year and people ask him why, he can just show that play on a videoscreen, drop the mic & walk off the stage.
Based on these things I'd like to pick the Saints, but these are teams that play well in their own domes. So the Colts are the smart pick here. But don't be shocked if they fall flat on their faces, so don't put too much money down on this one.
Oakland at San Diego (-4): The Chargers have four losses, but they're all against teams that I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs. No reason to worry in San Diego. There's always reason to worry in Oakland. They are coming off a bye & should be rested up, but the Chargers have more talent. Which isn't really much, but let's be honest, outside of Denver's defense the AFC West is having a pretty rough season all around.
Dallas at NY Giants (-3.5): Speaking of teams having rough seasons all around, the Cowboys & Giants definitely qualify for that description. Dallas definitely needed the bye week they got last week & the Giants would definitely love to have one at this point. I really don't feel like writing about either of these overhyped teams that probably won't make the playoffs and only have a chance because the NFC is kinda stinky, so here's Jim Rome talking about Bert, Ernie & Peppermint Patty:
Best Rome bit ever? Probably. Anyway, I figure you should take the Giants because nobody should bet on Matt Cassel on the road. Or anywhere, for that matter.
Philadelphia at Carolina (-3): This should be a pretty good one. Philadelphia seems to be figuring out that they need to have DeMarco Murray running the ball to be successful, and the defense has created turnovers at a pretty good rate. Their performance against the Giants wasn't pretty to watch, but it was definitely effective. This seems to change every week, but right now it's tough to see anybody winning the NFC East other than the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are still undefeated after coming back in the 4th quarter to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. That doesn't happen except during this season where the Seahawks are always giving up leads. Gotta give Carolina all the credit in the world though, Cam Newton and that cornerback Lambert keeps talking about have to be in consideration for Offensive & Defensive Player of the Year. I think the Panthers are for real, and this is the week that they show it.
Monday, October 26
Baltimore at Arizona (-7.5): Ravens fans, feel free to push the panic button.
Your team isn't good. People like Dustin James really thought you were going to be good because you got hot at the end of last season and were some deflated balls away from maybe possibly getting to the Super Bowl if things broke your way, but us AFC North fans knew what you really were. You had a good run. This year you're unlucky. It is what it is.
And this week, you're getting smoked by the Cardinals. They're PISSED OFF.
Last Week: 6-7-1
2015 Season: 47-40-3
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