Thursday, December 3
Green Bay (-3) at Detroit: The Packers confuse me. Their main competition in the NFC North this year appears to be the Vikings, right? So they blow out the Vikings in Minnesota, but they lose at home to the Lions and Bears. This makes no sense to me...except that Detroit & Chicago both seem to be turning things around and are no longer as bad as we gave them credit for earlier in the season. So maybe all the teams in the NFC North can be kinda dangerous? That's a refreshing change of pace from every other division this season.
Lots of things are telling me to pick the Lions here. Jim Bob Cooter has the offense rolling, the defense is making plays, and the Lions are getting better while Green Bay seems to be stagnating. Which means I'm picking the Packers. Its the old George Costanza theory...everything I know about the Packers wrong, so the opposite must be right. My instincts tell me Lions, so go with Packers. Simple enough.
Sunday, December 6
San Francisco at Chicago (-7): I mentioned earlier that the Bears aren't as bad as we thought. Are the 49ers as bad as we thought? Probably. But...other teams are bad enough where they don't stand out as much as we thought they would when they fired Harbaugh and half the team retired. Don't get fooled by a somewhat competent showing against Arizona, this is still a team that the Bears should take care of at home. Cutler has been solid and having 2 really good running backs like Forte and Heyward is a good problem to have.
Cincinnati (-9.5) at Cleveland: The Bengals got back on the right track last week against some inferior competition in some good ol' fashioned afternoon football. Everything was clicking on all cylinders, and I expect that to continue this week in Cleveland. The Browns can usually be a pesky bunch, but they're a mess of a team right now. Josh McCown's done, Johnny Manziel's in the doghouse, and Austin Rivers Davis is Austin Rivers Davis. Even if the Browns did the right thing according to some and start Manziel, the Bengals have the kid's number. He's had one good drive against them in two games. Davis might be the way to go just because the Bengals haven't seen him as often, and he looked all right when he was throwing the ball on Monday night. It's what he did when not throwing the ball that helped cost the Browns the game. I think he's the right choice to start. Will it work? Probably not.
(The Austin Rivers Davis thing is a fantasy football podcast in-joke. I called the guy Austin Rivers once when he started playing for the Rams and it took off from there. I have no idea why Lambert calls him THE TRUTH.)
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-2.5): .....
Gimme the Jaguars and the points. Tennessee looks like they're trying to get the #1 draft position, so then they can trade that pick to get Chip Kelly.
Yes, I think that sounds dumb too. It's the Tennessee Titans, what do you expect?
Houston at Buffalo (-3): Dustin James refuses to buy into the Texans just because they've had a couple of good weeks. I get that, but I think you need to keep an eye on them anyway...the AFC South champ will be either them or Indy, and I wouldn't rule out the other getting a wild card right now. All you need to do is get in, then things could happen.
(You think I want to see the Texans across the field from the Bengals in January? Absolutely not. There isn't a team out there that has our number more right now. Not even the Steelers.)
That being said, I'm going with the Bills. They've lost two straight games, but to good teams and by single digits. There's also going to be cold weather, and nobody circles the wagons in cold weather like the Buffalo Bills.
Baltimore at Miami (-4): The Ravens just don't lose by wide margins, so they're the pick here. And it's not like the Dolphins are setting the world on fire anymore either. The novelty factor of Man Campbell has worn off something fierce in Miami. Maybe they should hire Mark Richt.
Carolina (-7) at New Orleans: The Panthers are the final undefeated team in the NFL. They're still frauds, of course. But the only bigger joke than the idea of Carolina actually being good is the New Orleans defense. And now the offense is joining in the act & not bothering to score touchdowns? Gotta ride with the Panthers here. 12-0. PantherMania is sweeping the nation, brother. And that Cam Netwon really is quite the trend setter. Even college football coaches are copying his act.
Seattle at Minnesota: The Vikings got back on track with a win over Atlanta last week, while the Seahawks had an impressive win in Seattle against Pittsburgh. The Seahawks are always a little bit weaker on the road than at home...if they can force Minnesota to throw the ball more often than they run, they should have a pretty good chance at winning this game. The problem with that theory is that no matter how good your defense is, you probably won't stop Adrian Peterson. You'll need your offense to produce enough points to beat him.
Luckily for the Seahawks, their offense has been on point lately. Russell Wilson has been on fire throwing to Doug Baldwin and...the other guys. Thomas Rawls has been running all over people. Jimmy Graham's out, but he was only really a factor for part of the Steelers game anyway. I still like the Vikings to get a playoff bid in this conference, and their defense has been on point most of the season, but their game against Green Bay showed that they can't stop the elite teams just yet. The elite teams win on the road against good teams this time of year, and I think we still consider Seattle elite.
Arizona (-5.5) at St. Louis: The Rams have been completely inept lately and there's no reason I should pick them here. Other than for whatever reason they always play their divisional foes close, especially at home. Arizona didn't look too great against San Francisco, and I think they get another ugly victory here by a slim margin.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-2): Remember when the Falcons were right at the top of the NFC South with the Panthers? My, how the times have changed. Now they're underdogs against the Buccaneers, the team that began their current four-game losing streak. The Bucs have gone 2-2 in that stretch. They're a young team finding their way. They have a Muscle Hamster that can run over defenses like Atlanta's that can't stop the run. I'm liking the Buccaneers to sweep the Falcons this season. I don't like them to do much else, but I like them to do that.
NY Jets (-2) at NY Giants: Darrelle Revis vs. Odell Beckham Jr. is a matchup worth the price of admission. The lockdown cornerback in the league for the past several years against the most exciting wide receiver in the league right now? Should be a damn fun matchup. I have Beckham in a couple of fantasy leagues, so you know who I'll be rooting for. Revis is going through concussion protocol right now but I'd be surprised if he wasn't out there. This is a must-win game for the Giants to keep up with the rest of the miserable NFC East, and I think they find a way to get it done.
Denver (-4) at San Diego: The Chargers showed some life last week by beating the Jaguars. Yay! That doesn't give me any indication that they'll do something against the Broncos. Brock Osweiler goes 3-0 & Denver fans continue to lose their minds over him. He is going to be Peyton Manning's successor...the question is when Peyton's going to realize it.
Kansas City (-3) at Oakland: Remember when we were trying to sell you on the Raiders as a sleeper team in the AFC West & the Chiefs were looking for answers? Yeah, it's like the opposite now. The Chiefs are on a roll right now, and even though it's a rivalry game and it's a game in Oakland, they should win by at least a field goal. It's amazing how anybody can be the Chiefs running back and still provide the great production. Jamaal Charles, Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, it really doesn't matter who's running the ball in Kansas City, they just keep on truckin' defenses.
Philadelphia at New England (-9.5): The Patriots actually lost last week. They're human. They're losing players at a pretty dangerous rate. I still gotta pick them over the sorry, no-account Eagles because...well...have you seen the Eagles lately? I don't know if they've quit on their coach or if they're just plain bad, but either way it isn't a pretty sight.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-7): The big news coming out of Seattle last week other than the Steelers losing is that Ben Roethlisberger took himself out late in the game due to concussion-like symptoms. He practiced in full on Wednesday, so he should be good to go this week. But if you're a Steelers fan the last thing you want to see is Big Ben having even more injury issues.
Colts fans know a lot about quarterbacks having injury issues this year. NBC was hoping this would be Roethlisberger vs. Luck, but Matt Hasselbeck is the quarterback of record in Indianapolis these days. He's undefeated this season, but he's yet to face a test like going to Heinz Field & playing against the Steelers. I don't think he'll be up to that test.
Monday, December 7
Dallas at Washington (-4): There's only two words that can sum up the NFC East as it stands right now: Dumpster fire.
You got the Cowboys sitting down in the cellar at 3-8. They were hoping Tony Romo would come back and save their season. That didn't happen. The Eagles are 4-7 and are such a mess that people are saying their coach/GM is going to get traded. The Giants are 5-6 and we're waiting for them to take control of this division, but that hasn't happened yet.
Then we got Washington. An organization that's such a mess on so many levels. Their franchise quarterback that was going to bring them back to glory has been riding the bench all season. Their point differential is -26. They might play in London twice this season. A good percentage of football fans either call them the Racial Slurs or the Racists. Yet they beat the Giants last week and have a really good chance at winning their division and getting a playoff slot. It's really something else. It's what happens when you have a bunch of bad football teams.
This game will be close. It won't be aesthetically pleasing, but it'll go down to the wire and give us something to watch other than Raw. I think Washington wins, but it feels like a field goal game so I'm taking the Cowboys and the points. Maybe we'll all have a few beverages and think we're watching Roger Staubach & Sammy Baugh instead of Matt Cassel & Kirk Cousins. YOU LIKE THAT?
Last Week: 8-8
2015 Season: 96-73-6
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