The American League has been conquered by the Kansas City Royals for the last two seasons. Will that string of dominance continue this year? Probably not. No team has won more than two straight AL championships since the New York Yankees of 1998-2001. Unlike the National League, the margin between the good & bad teams in the American League is pretty thin. Let's take a look!
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Why they can win the American League: Manny Machado is among one of the top young third basemen in baseball. Chris Jones & Mark Trumbo bring a lot of power to the lineup. The Orioles won the AL East in 2014, and most of the talent from that team is still in Baltimore.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The starting rotation regressed a ton last season after having a stellar 2014, and I think they're likely to be closer to their 2015 performance than 2014. The Orioles are about as good as they were a couple of years ago, but the rest of the division has improved.
Why they can win the American League: The Sawx have their down years, but they always rebound from them. This off-season they picked up David Price & Craig Kimbrel, arguably the best starting & relieving pitchers on the market. Young talent like Mookie Betts & Xander Bogaerts developed well during the 2015 season, and could be poised to take the Red Sox up the standings in 2016. David Ortiz is entering his last season and will be motivated to go out with a bang.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The starting rotation behind Price is up & down at best. Hanley Ramirez & Pablo Sandoval have been useless since signing with Boston. The Red Sox either exceed expectations or flop every year, with a loaded division like the one they've got I could see it going either way.
New York Yankees
Why they can win the American League: If you're not leading the Yankees after the 6th inning, you're not going to win the game. Their already top-notch bullpen got even better with the addition of Aroldis "The Cuban Missile" Chapman this off-season. He, Andrew Miller & Dellin Betances will make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to mount late-inning comebacks.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The offense heavily relies on older talent like Carlos Beltran (38 years old), Mark Teixeira (35) & Alex Rodriguez (40). They all performed very well in 2015, but asking them to repeat that performance in 2016 may be asking a bit much.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why they can win the American League: Corey Dickerson should add a lot of power to the lineup that has some decent players like Evan Longoria. Chris Archer leads a decent starting rotation that should be boosted with the return of Alex Cobb late in the season. And keep an eye on Blake Snell, a highly-acclaimed minor leaguer that could sneak his way into the rotation.
Why they won't make the playoffs: They'll be long out of the hunt by the time Cobb returns because they don't have enough offense. Dickerson won't be as productive in Tropicana Field as he was in Coors Field. The Rays are waiting until their farm system catches fire again.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why they can win the American League: Toronto has one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin...it's pretty stacked. They should be able to score enough runs to compete with any team. Marcus Stroman recovered well from a knee injury & had an outstanding September.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The pitching after Stroman is Toronto's weakness. David Price is in Boston now, and J.A. Happ isn't going to be able to replace his production. R.A. Dickey is a fine enough knuckleballer, but the Jays are going to have to score a ton of runs to repeat their performance from last season.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Why they can win the American League: Chicago added Todd Frazier & Brett Lawrie to their lineup over the off-season, each man an obvious upgrade over the White Sox second & third basemen in 2015. The upgrade in offense (which was worst in the AL last season) should help Jose Abreu get more pitches to hit & improve the win-loss record of Chris Sale & the rest of the Sox rotation.
Why they won't make the playoffs: As much as I love Frazier, he's very streaky. He was basically useless after last season's Home Run Derby. I'm not sold that the addition of him & Lawrie will be enough to vault the Sox into contention.
Cleveland Indians
Why they can win the American League: The Indians didn't live up to high expectations last season, but the pieces are still there. Corey Kluber & Carlos Carrasco are two of the best pitchers in the league. Second baseman Jason Kipnis had a solid season, shortstop Francisco Lindor is more of an offensive weapon than expected, and outfielder Michael Bradley should be back in May.
Why they won't make the playoffs: There's a reason there are no expectations this season. Kluber & Carrasco have great stuff but give up too many runs to win a lot of games. If they don't get more run support this season, the Indians will be back where they were last season.
Detroit Tigers
Why they can win the American League: Their starting lineup is ridiculous. Miguel Cabrera might only play 120 games but he can still win the batting title. J.D. & Victor Martinez are effective power hitters & the addition of Justin Upton brings another dangerous bat to the fold. Jordan Zimmerman is a good addition to the starting rotation, and Francisco Rodriguez should finally give Detroit something good in their bullpen.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Cabrera might play even less than 120 games, and he isn't getting any younger. K-Rod might meet the same fate that Joe Nathan & other solid closers met in Detroit: doom. The starting rotation that used to be one of Detroit's strengths keeps losing pieces.
Kansas City Royals
Why they can win the American League: They've done it the last two years. Nearly every Royal made the All-Star team last season, and most of the pieces from the last two teams are back. Closer Greg Holland's Tommy John-induced absence should be off-set by the return of Joakim Soria & the emergence of Wade Davis in the role. As much criticism as he gets, Ned Yost knows what he's doing. Success shouldn't go to the Royals' heads, it's a very laid-back clubhouse.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Some KC players might be due for regression. Ian Kennedy's been on a downward swing the last couple of years, and going to the AL probably won't help. They weren't able to hold onto mid-season acquisitions Johnny Cueto & Ben Zobrist. The Royals have a solid lineup & great bullpen, but starting pitching is still a concern.
Minnesota Twins
Why they can win the American League: Lots of good young talent here for manager Paul Molitor to work with. Byron Buxton is a future superstar. Miguel Sano is a solid player. There are some good prospects working their way up to the roster. This is a team that won't wow you on paper, but Molitor got a lot out of them in his first season as manager.
Why they won't make the playoffs: It's going to be tough overtaking the Royals, or getting a wild card spot in this league. The starting rotation needs some serious work. Joe Mauer regresses every season, and one might expect the team in general to regress after overachieving last season.
AL West
Houston Astros
Why they can win the American League: The Astros launched a revolution by tanking for years in order to attain high draft picks. Now they're reaping the benefits. Carlos Correa is a budding superstar and there's great young talent up & down the lineup like Jose Altuve, George Springer & Carlos Gomez. Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel leads a solid starting rotation & former Phillie Ken Giles looks to be the lights-out closer they'll need in October.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Sophomore slumps for the Astros precocious talent can't be ruled out. Can Keuchel repeat his performance from last year? Will Correa, Springer, Altuve & others regress? The entire team regressed late in last season and nearly fell out of the playoffs. That can't happen again.
Los Angeles Angels
Why they can win the American League: Mike Trout. OK, there's some other reasons. Albert Pujols is expected to be ready on Opening Day after recovering from foot surgery. Kole Calhoun should be able to drive in more runs batting behind Trout & Pujols. The starting pitching is solid. And maybe Josh Hamilton being gone is for the best. They were a game out of the playoffs last year, it wouldn't be shocking if they took the next step up.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Left field & the designated hitter position are a complete mess. Yunel Escobar probably won't keep that .300 batting average going in Anaheim. Pujols hit 40 home runs last year, but that's not a common thing for him since moving to the Angels. Mike Scioscia's the longest-tenured manager in baseball, but always seems to be at odds with the front office.
Oakland Athletics
Why they can win the American League: The A's won 68 games last year, so changing things can do nothing but help. Billy Beane made a lot of changes during the off-season, bringing back Jed Lowrie & adding the likes of Yonder Alonso, Henderson Alverez, Ryan Madson, John Axford & Rich Hill. Sonny Gray is a very good pitcher and is still with the A's at this time. Stephen Vogt & Josh Reddick have good bats & Billy Burns is a fun young player.
Why they won't make the playoffs: None of their off-season additions do anything for me. Gray will make a solid addition to a contending team sometime around the trade deadline. Beane is playing the long game here, and he hopes it works out as well as it did when Michael Lewis wrote that book.
Seattle Mariners
Why they can win the American League: The Mariners had an even busier off-season than the As, trading everybody under the sun. A new GM & a new manager will lead a ton of rookie players, with some solid foundation pieces like Felix Hernandex & Robinson Cano.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Ken Griffey Jr. isn't walking through that door. The Mariners made a ton of moves but none of them blew people away. They might be good in a couple of years, but this division looks too loaded for them to make an impacy this year.
Texas Rangers
Why they can win the American League: The Rangers were a punchline at the beginning of the 2015 season but they were the ones laughing when September rolled around, winning the AL West & making the playoffs. Prince Fielder got back on the right track, Adrian Beltre refuses to age, and Cole Hamels came to town and is pretty good. Once Yu Darvish comes back, that's a strong 1-2 in the rotation.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Beltre finally ages, Prince goes back into regression mode, Josh Hamilton doesn't contribute, the pitching isn't very good except for Darvish & Hamels. The Rangers probably got lucky at the end of last season thanks to Houston fading, and can't afford to fall too far behind in the standings this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment