Week 1 was plenty exciting, but I think Week 2's going to be even better. Let's hook em up!
Thursday, September 11
Steelers at Ravens (-2.5): Neither of these teams had the best of days on the football field Sunday. Pittsburgh looked like they were on their way to a blowout win over a dreadful-looking Cleveland team like most of us expected, but blew a 24 point lead in the second half & only managed to win the game by kicking a field goal as time expired. Not exactly a great sign for the people claiming the Steelers are going to be so much better this season. On the bright side, Le'Veon Bell had himself a 100+ yard day, Dustin's favorite player LeGarrette Blount got to vulture a touchdown, and Antonio Brown had his typical great game while also providing us with the *Sponsor To Be Named* GIF Image of the Week:
We can knock the Steelers' second half performance or lack thereof, but a win is a win & they are sitting at 1-0. The Ravens are not, as they lost at home to the Bengals after storming back from a 15-0 deficit to lead 16-15 before AJ Green did AJ Green things. The Ravens can take solace in Justin Forsett looking like a starting running back in the second half (Bernard Pierce sure as hell didn't look like one in the first half) & Steve Smith Sr. still telling people to ice up son at the ripe old age of 73 with a nice 80 yard TD catch & run. I don't think people in Baltimore are swimming in positivity though, as losing at home to a division rival to start the year is always a kick in the knickers. Losing two straight at home to division rivals to start the year...well, your year wouldn't be over but you'd be digging yourself a pretty big hole to climb out of.
I won't delve into the Ray Rice quagmire here because it makes me sad & I like to write about happy things (To sum it up in one sentence: The NFL & the Ravens fucked up & should be ashamed of themselves.), but one has to figure that if Michael Sam's existence in a locker room & Johnny Football partying with Justin Bieber & Drake qualify as distractions in the world of professional football, there's a whole lot of distraction going on in Baltimore right now. The Steelers can concentrate on football & weed like every other team, and I think that's enough to get them the win.
Sunday, September 14
Dolphins at Bills (+1): As much as people like to pretend they're NFL experts and know everything there is to know about the sport of football, things happen every single week that nobody predicted. Some will backtrack & then claim they saw them as possibilities to make themselves look intelligent, but we know they're lying. I can pretty much guarantee that nobody reading this column thought last week that Week 2's tilt between the Dolphins & the Bills would be a battle of 1-0 teams. With Miami hosting the perennial AFC East Champions from New England & Buffalo traveling to Chicago to play Da Bears, most would have figured Week 2 would have two 0-1 teams going at it.
The first half in Miami went like we figured it would. The Patriots took a 20-10 lead while the Dolphins bumbled around like they've been known to do since Dan Marino retired. It looked fairly typical. After the half the Dolphins were a different football team. Knowshon Moreno got 91 of his 134 rushing yards after the half & made Lamar Miller's fantasy owners wonder about their future plans. Ryan Tannehill was solid enough to get the job done. Miami's defense had no problem getting around the feeble New England offensive line or covering the random dudes that make up the Patriot receiving corps. It was domination by the Dolphins. They were not who we thought they were.
Neither were the Bills. Chicago went into this season with all sorts of grand expectations like they usually do, while Buffalo went in with no expectations like they usually do. Turns out they were two evenly matched teams on Sunday. The Bills took advantage of the Bears' utter lack of run defense by having three guys run for over fifty yards. By the way, good luck figuring out who Buffalo's top running back will be on any given week. Now Anthony Dixon's in the mix too. CJ Spiller helped wear the defense down while Fred Jackson got a 38 yard run during overtime to set up the field goal & the improbable victory for the Bills.
Are these teams for real? One of them's going 2-0. Unless they tie, which would be funny. I'm thinking the Bills have the advantage here being at home, where everybody's actually going to be happy for once since the team is getting sold to somebody that'll keep it in Buffalo. The Bills at 2-0? I'm sure stranger things have happened at some point.
Jaguars at Washington (-6): The Jags lost to Philadelphia like we all expected, but they did get off to quite the hot start. They got Nick Foles to fumble on the Eagles' first two possessions, Allen Hurns (who?) scored touchdowns on the Jaguars' first two possessions, & the Jaguars led 17-0 at the half! That didn't last. But it was fun while it did, by cracky!
Nothing about Jay Gruden's first game as Washington head coach could be classified as fun. They scored early, the extra point got blocked, and it was all downhill from there in an uninspiring loss to the Houston Texans. Things should be better this week since they're hosting Jacksonville, right?
Right?
6 points sounds like way too many points here. I'm actually thinking the Jaguars cover. Not sure they win the game, but RG3 & company didn't do a lot in Week 1 to inspire confidence that they can beat anybody by a touchdown. And hey, the Jaguars did look good in that one half. Pump the brakes on that Blake Bortles bandwagon, kids. Chad Henne's here to stay! For at least a little while anyway.
Cowboys at Titans (-3.5): HOW BOUT DEM 0-1 COWBOYS? Most of us expected them to get creamed by San Francisco in Week 1 & that's exactly what happened. Tony Romo did Tony Romo things, the defense didn't feel like stopping anybody & couldn't have if they wanted to, and Jerry Jones spent the game calculating how much money he'll make on Michael Sam jerseys when they call him up around Thanksgiving time. Jason Garrett spent the game picking his nose, so it's not like he was much more useful. There isn't much to say about the Cowboys effort in Week 1 other than there wasn't much of one.
The Titans are coming off a Week 1 loss at...wait a minute, they won? In Kansas City? By sixteen points? What is this sorcery? Jake Locker did well enough at QB that people are hyping him as a fantasy option in Week 2 (Not the worst idea, we've already established that the Cowboys have no defense.), the defense picked Alex Smith off three times, and they also made Andy Reid forget that Jamaal Charles was on his roster. Not sure how that happened.
So, to review: The Cowboys can't stop anybody. Tennessee's defense got the opposing QB to turn the ball over three times. The Cowboy QB1 is Tony Romo.
HOW BOUT DEM TITANS? I don't know if this thing's going to last, but Ken Wisenhunt seems to have at least temporarily found something that works.
Cardinals at Giants (+1): Both of these teams played on Monday night, which I find to be more fair than the Seahawks/Chargers matchup discussed later where one team played on Thursday night & the other played Monday night. Wildly different results for each team, as the Giants got blown out in Detroit by Calvin Johnson (the other Lions were involved too, but let's be real, it was mostly Megatron) while the Cardinals eeked out a win when San Diego went all San Diego. Eli Manning threw two interceptions. Carson Palmer threw two touchdowns. One team looked like a team that could make it to the playoffs if things break the right way. The other team plays in New Jersey so they'll get more attention from the media.
When I added the odds in before I started writing stuff, the line was at Giants -2. Now it's at Cardinals -1 with other sites being even. I think people saw the Giants being favored & started throwing money at Arizona. I don't blame them, as I was wondering what the heck people were thinking with Giants -2. The Giants just don't look like a good football team & the Cardinals have a defense that will make life tough for Eli Manning.
Patriots at Vikings (+3): I expected the Vikings to go into St. Louis's dome & win the game because the Rams have no offense to speak of. I didn't expect them to win 34-6. The Rams are somehow worse than we expected, but perhaps there's something going on up in Minnesota. Mike Zimmer is a coach I have a very high opinion of, they've got two of the most dangerous playmakers in the NFL in Adrian Peterson & Cordarrelle Patterson, and the defense can at least make plays against the likes of Shaun Hill & Austin Davis.
The honeymoon period for Mike Zimmer & the Vikings is still going strong.
The difference is they're going up against Tom Brady this week. The Patriot offense looked like they typically look in the 1st half against Miami. We forget that because of what happened in the 2nd half, but you know as well as Bill Simmons & I do that you never want to play New England after a loss. I think the Vikings are interesting this year, but the Patriots should be able to win this week by more than a field goal. Unless something's horribly wrong with Tom Brady & nobody's talking about it.
Saints at Browns (+6.5): Both of these teams were involved in offensive shootouts last week. Cleveland's was kind of by accident, as they were down 27-3 at one point before Dick LeBeau retired in the middle of the game & the Steelers stopped playing defense. Ben Tate got hurt & now we're looking at Isaiah Crowell as the main (only) fantasy option coming out of Cleveland until Josh Gordon's suspension gets reduced.
Have you noticed how NFL writers are so defensive of Josh Gordon & his right to smoke doobies? I mean, it's obviously silly that a first-time offense for pot-smoking gets a longer suspension than beating your girlfriend/wife does (until the video gets released of course), but I think guys like Jay Glazier & Mike Florio have a particular interest in this issue for reasons that you can figure out by connecting some dots. I still don't see how Gordon is a victim of anything other than addiction, but he'll keep getting chances because he's talented & in the prime of his football career.
The Saints were involved in probably the game of the week, losing by a field goal in Atlanta in overtime. Not much to be ashamed of there, other than a complete & utter lack of defense, but that's nothing new for the Saints. Cleveland can be a tricky team to play in their stadium & the Saints have never really been known as a road team, so I'm actually going to recommend putting your money on the Browns. I'm not saying they're going to win, but it could be closer than people think.
So far I've recommended gambling on the Bills, Jaguars & Browns. You might wonder if I've been engaging in the activities that I implied that Jay Glazier & Mike Florio enjoy. Nah, just drinking some Hawaiian Punch Berry Bonkers.
I am now too cheap to buy beer on a regular basis.
Falcons at Bengals (-5.5): The Falcons & Bengals are both 1-0 & both took part in tough divisional games last week. Interesting matchup here pitting two of the top wide receivers in the NFL against each other. A.J. Green & Julio Jones were taken with the 4th & 6th pick respectively in the 2011 NFL Draft, and both men have played key roles in their teams' success since then. Or lack thereof, as we saw Atlanta's performance nosedive last year when Jones was out with injury. They will likely be compared with each other for the rest of their careers, and their teams will benefit from the competition.
I think the difference comes down to defense. We were worried about Cincinnati's defense with the departure of Mike Zimmer, but they seemed like the same old Bengal defense in Baltimore in Week 1. Certainly a step up in competition from the Saints defense that the Falcons faced in Week 1...but the Bengals saw no wide receivers like Jones or Roddy White in Week 1 either. The Falcons D didn't get much done against New Orleans, but the Bengals offense was pretty happy to kick field goals on Baltimore until their final drive.
I got the Bengals winning, but I think it's going to be close enough that the Falcons will beat the spread. Should be a good game. If it doesn't sell out I might just grab myself a ticket.
By the way, with all the horrible football news garnering headlines these days it's good to see some attention directed towards Bengals defensive tackle Devon Still. His four year old daughter is battling cancer & the team has stood behind him by keeping him on the practice squad & selling his jersey, with all the proceeds going to Cincinnati Children's Hospital & Pediatric Cancer Care & Research. Whenever you're a fan of a team you'd like to know that your organization gets it, and as a Bengals fan I love that the team is doing this. His agent tweeted that he was promoted to the main roster, it hasn't been confirmed yet but I certainly hope for the best for Devon & his family.
Lions at Panthers (-2.5): Cam Newton is expected to be back in this game, which should be a good thing. I almost wonder if the Panthers should hold him out another week simply because the Lions are among the dirtiest teams in the league & you know they'll be targeting Cam's ribs. We'll find out what kind of shape he's in, that's for sure. The rest of the team did well enough in his absence against Tampa Bay. Kelvin Benjamin looks like he could be a solid receiver, DeAngelo Williams & the RBs did enough clock killing, and they got to play Tampa Bay, who don't have much in the way of offense.
It's a little bit different this week. Megatron is at full force, Golden Tate got 90 yards & provides a proper WR2 that the Lions haven't really had in years, and you never know who will get the ball between Bell & Bush but you know somebody would. As much as I'd like Cam to come back strong for my fantasy football efforts, I fear he'll be up against a bit too much this week. Lions to win. Jeremy Lambert would complain about this if he wasn't too busy tweeting at sixteen year old girls. BOOM ROASTED.
Rams at Buccaneers (-5.5): The Rams were even worse than I expected in Week 1. Shaun Hill lasted one half before getting his quad injured...Austin Davis was somewhat better I guess, but that's like comparing horse manure to cow manure. At the end of the day it's still manure, so one being better than the other doesn't make it good. The running game was basically non-existent. The vaunted Rams defense was no match for Cordarrelle Patterson. It was a bad day in St. Louis. Happens a lot.
Fortunately for the Rams, Tampa Bay has nobody resembling Cordarrelle Patterson on their team. They managed to lose to a backup quarterback in Week 1, and I even know Panthers fans that think Derek Anderson is a good quarterback now. It's pretty amazing. Doug Martin was about as effective as a regular hamster against the Panthers, Josh McCown played like a career backup quarterback, and a late rally couldn't really cover up the fact that even with a new coach the Bucs still have a long way to go.
So I get to pick one of these teams now. Yay. I got the Rams covering in a low-scoring affair. I don't really have a reason for this other than I don't think either team will put too many points on the board.
Seahawks at Chargers (+5.5): We were all pretty much ready to crown the Seahawks as 2-time Super Bowl Champions after Thursday night's game. The Packers had absolutely no answer for the Seahawks on either side of the ball most of the night. Defense was doing their thing against Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch was going all Beast Mode, guys we'd never heard of were scoring touchdowns...it was good times for Seattle. If I was an NFL Power Rankings guy I'm not sure who I would put ahead of the Seahawks based on Week 1. Probably nobody.
San Diego did not have good times on Monday night. Not at all. It was one of those low-scoring games that I've become accustomed to as an AFC North football afficinado, and as usual on Monday night they found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I expect the Chargers to fare better once they start playing teams that are not tough on defense & will give Philip Rivers enough time to figure out what he's doing. Unfortunately, they play the toughest defense in the league this week. Oh, and Seattle last played on Thursday night while San Diego was in the Monday late game, so they're going to have four days of extra rest. That's just not fair. Take the Seahawks.
Texans at Raiders (+3): RYAN FITZPATRICK! DEREK CARR! TEXANS! RAIDERS! THE NFL ON CBS! I saw people saying that Houston should have taken Carr in the Draft, but does anybody really think that Texan fans would buy into another Carr at QB1? Not a chance in hell. Sure, Fitzpatrick has as much chance of leading a team to a Super Bowl as I do, but people have not forgotten David Carr in Houston. No, not at all. Lord knows they'd like to.
At least the Texans are 1-0 after defeating the Washingtonians. The Raiders got to make the cross-country flight to New Jersey to lose to the Jets in a game I'm sure was utterly fascinating. Honestly I don't even want to look at the ESPN recap & box score for that game, but I'm doing it anyway for you people. Oh, Rex Ryan says it should have been a "rat kill". I'm not sure what that means, but probably nothing good in relation to Oakland. Carr did throw two touchdowns. DMC & MJD combined for a miserable 26 yards. Someday they hope to be merely awful. MJD's long run was 12 & he got 11 yards total in the game. We're reaching the point where he can't be referred to by his initials, which sucks because Maurice Jones-Drew is annoying to type.
I was wondering how the Raiders were dogs at home. I shouldn't have. Texans. I'm not terribly high on them either but at least they have some players capable of doing things on a football field. J.J. Watt will make a ridiculous play or two.
Jets at Packers (-8): The Jets were also in that football game I just read about, and they did some useful things. Over 200 yards of rushing & good defense against the run. They also got 11 penalties for 105 yards, which won't get it done against teams that are not the Oakland Raiders. They get to go to Green Bay this week, and you know the Packers have to be in a wonderful mood after getting their asses handed to them in Seattle.
I'm trying to make an argument for the Jets based on their defense, but I just don't see enough offensive firepower on their side to take advantage of any lapses by Aaron Rodgers & the Packer offense. Add in the fact they've had a couple of extra days to stew in their anger & prepare for Rex Ryan's team, you gotta figure the Packers win by double digits.
Chiefs at Broncos (-13): This sounds like a pretty high line at first glance, perhaps an over-reaction to Week 1, where the Broncos pulled out the win over Indy while the Chiefs got demolished at home by Tennessee. One has to hope that Andy Reid plans on getting the ball in Jamaal Charles' hands more than eleven times this week...I saw that box score and assumed that the guy had gotten injured. No, they just had an awful game plan. I also think they may have taken Tennessee lightly, which is something that your younger teams will do. (KC is the third-youngest team in the league.)
Denver looked pretty good in the first half. I feel like I've led off most of my paragraphs with this phrase or something similar to it. This is probably why I'm writing for the Ultimate Football Blog & not Gawker or something. Anyway, the Colts came back in the 2nd half to tie the spread, which is always a good time. I don't remember if Al Michaels mentioned that or not, I do remember Cris Collinsworth making fantasy football references. The Denver defensive effort in the 2nd half wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, but Andy Luck seems to have that kind of luck so I'm not sure how much to read into it.
I like the Broncos to win this game, but 13 seems like a pretty high number. I'm seeing 13.5 in some spreads as well. If it stays this high, go with the Chiefs as I'm thinking it'll be a 10 point win for the Broncos. They've shown that they can take the foot off the gas, and I have to believe that KC will come out with a better effort this week.
Bears at 49ers (-7): Lots of people were worried about San Francisco heading into the season. That worry was mostly cooled by their demolition of the Cowboys. It was 28-3 when things still mattered...the Cowboys scored a couple of times late but I think the 49ers 4th string defense was in at that point. Though it should be kept in mind that the Cowboys are not a very good football team, I'm still thinking that's enough to make you feel comfortable with the 49ers at 7 points or somewhere in that range.
There's no real reason to feel comfortable with the Bears. They turned the ball over three times against Buffalo, including two interceptions. You can count on the 49ers getting at least two interceptions. Chicago can't stop the run, and Frank Gore & Carlos Hyde should be able to take advantage of that. Defenses that can't stop the run also have a tough time against Colin Kaepernick, who can run or pass or whatever the situation calls for. Maybe Chicago shows up this week & makes people feel ok for picking them to go far in the playoffs, but the 49ers feel like a safer bet. I also think it's a safe bet you can go to sleep earlier than you did last Sunday.
Monday, September 15
Eagles at Colts (-3): The Eagles losing 17-0 to Jacksonville at the half was one of those scores to had to look at a couple of times to make sure you weren't hallucinating. Things eventually sorted themselves out and maybe it was just a hiccup by Philly, but it was still kind of weird. The Colts had a bad first half as well, but since it was in Denver we all kinda saw it coming. We all kinda saw them storming back in the second half to tie Vegas happening as well. That's just how they roll.
I'm looking forward to this Monday night game. Shady McCoy will probably be running all over the place & not tipping people on his merry way, Darren Sproles will do his thing, and Luck will probably have some late game magic. It'll be back & forth, could be a 3 point game so the spread's tricky, but I'm liking the Colts to take it.
And there's another week in the books! Thanks for reading & don't forget all the other great content Dustin provides here on the Ultimate Football Blog! Slammin' Steve Cook signing off.
Last week: 8-7-1
Overall record: 8-7-1
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