Remember when Coors Light was the official beer of the NFL? Shitty beer, but...TWINS!
My pick em picks didn't go great last weeks & my betting picks went even worse. Hopefully this week will go a bit better.
Thursday, September 18
Buccaneers at Falcons (-6.5): The difference between the Week 1 Falcons & the Week 2 Falcons is fairly simple to figure out. The Week 1 Falcons were playing at home against a team without a defense. The Week 2 Falcons were on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Vive la difference. Matt Ryan went from throwing for well over 400 yards in the best game of his career to throwing for 230 with three interceptions added in for good measure. A great performance in Week 1 & a terrible performance in Week 2. The truth lies somewhere in the middle with this Falcon team. At least the offense has its moments...the defense showed nothing against the Saints & not much more than nothing against an AJ Green-less Bengal squad. They should have an easier time of it this week, as Josh McCown as a starter has proven that he's a pretty darn good backup quarterback.
The Buccaneer bandwagon is down to the loyalists after losses at home to teams quarterbacked by Derek Anderson & Austin Davis. Both games were close, but if you can't get it done against guys like that at home it's tough to get too excited about the rest of your season. Three straight road games await the Bucs followed by a game at home with Baltimore before their Week 7 bye. 0-6 looks like a pretty strong possibility for this team.
As you can tell, I'm pretty excited about this one. 6.5 seems like a lot of points, but the Falcons are capable of lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta even on a dreaded Thursday night game. If the Bucs keep it close it's going to be because of Bobby Rainey, who just might have taken Doug Martin's job as lead running back.
Sunday, September 21
Chargers at Bills (-2.5): There are some positive stories in the NFL these days. They're tough to find, but they're there. One of them is the fact that the Buffalo Bills have found new ownership that wants to keep them right where they are. Combine that with Jim Kelly currently having the advantage against cancer & Bills fans are riding pretty high these days. The team's doing pretty well too. Got themselves a nice road win in Chicago & blew out the Dolphins at home last week. I'm not sure if it's something that lasts all season (it probably isn't), but it's tough to deny the wave of positivity that's building behind E.J. Manuel & the rest of the Bills right now. How bout that Sammy Watkins?
Chargers are doing pretty well too. I figured a short game week wouldn't help them against Seattle, but apparently the Seahawks took a few too many days off. Philip Rivers had himself a week because he was in my Fearful 4, and Antonio Gates took a dip in the Fountain of Youth. They had that close loss in Arizona, but losing close games on Monday night is a fairly typical Charger thing. Also fairly typical for the Chargers & most West Coast teams...struggles on the East Coast.
NOBODY CIRCLES THE WAGONS LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS. 3-0? Sure why the heck not. It's gonna be one of those seasons.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Rams: It's a Cowboy game in St. Louis...tell me Fox isn't making Joe Buck & Troy Aikman cover this one. Gonna be a tough enough watch for those that are stuck with it. The Cowboys rebounded from their Week 1 defeat with a strong showing in Tennessee while the Rams went down to Tampa Bay & beat the Bucs. I'm pretty sure the Rams are still bad, but it's starting to feel like the Cowboys can actually get to their typical 8-8 season & blow a chance at the playoffs in December. It's a tradition unlike any other.
I expect the Cowboys to keep things rolling in what could be a friendly atmosphere in St. Louis. You know they're AMERICA'S TEAM, & St. Louis fans have yet to notice that football season's actually started. Expect DeMarco Murray to get a lot of carries against a defense that has been third-worst against the run in the first two weeks. And how about me getting to this point without mentioning Michael Sam? I bet the NFL still wishes that was the main "distraction"...
Washington at Eagles (-6): It might sound strange, but the most positive development for the Washington football team so far this season is probably the installation of Kirk Cousins as quarterback. Cousins plays more to the strengths of Jay Gruden's offensive philosophy than Robert Griffin III does, and he looked pretty damn effective when pressed into game duty against Jacksonville. Granted, it was against Jacksonville, but it sure did look pretty. It looked like the offense that Gruden wants to have running things. This will become an issue if it isn't already (it is already).
The Eagles were impressive in coming back to defeat Indianapolis on Monday night. That's two straight weeks they've needed to come back from double digit deficits to win games, but you can't really argue with the results. Chip Kelly has the kind of offense that doesn't need a lot of time to marticulate points & with guys like Shady McCoy & Darren Sproles running around things are just going to be tough for opposing defenses all season.
Washington's defense has been effective so far, but the Eagles are a step up from the Texans & Jaguars. Take the homeboys.
Texans (-1) at Giants: Your Houston Texans are 2-0 and sitting in 1st place in the AFC South. Perhaps it's not all that surprising considering they've played Washington & Oakland so far, but the Texans are doing what they need to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has not made mistakes, the defense has held their less than stellar competition in check, and Arian Foster looks like the Arian Foster we knew & loved for so long. Hey, they don't make the schedule, they just play against it. And with that 4th place schedule of theirs, the Texans just might accumulate enough wins to make a playoff push.
The Giants are 0-2 & nobody seems particularly happy about it. Eli Manning has been atrocious with a lack of offensive line help & receivers holding on to the ball. The defense hasn't done much to stop anybody...even a Drew Stanton-led Arizona team put up 25 points without much of a fight. They look bad enough to roll the dice on the Texans here. I don't feel great about it, but some teams are good enough to beat bad teams.
Vikings at Saints (-9.5): Somehow the trainwreck that has been the Saints' first two weeks is the more positive story here, so let's start with them. I did say last week that Saints vs. Browns would be closer than people thought, but I underestimated how bad Outdoors Drew Brees can be & just how tricky the Browns can be at home. Things couldn't have gone worse for the Saints last week, they're thanking their lucky stars that they finally have a home game this week and can go back to looking like Super Bowl contenders.
It was a week ago when I was writing the Week 2 picks column & thought the Vikings had one of the better feel-good stories going. Mike Zimmer led them to a pretty big win against the Rams, Cordarrelle Patterson did his thing, there was still the chance Teddy Bridgewater would see time this year...all things that I like. Then Friday happened & we found out Adrian Peterson was a child abuser. (He said he wasn't...he is.) The Vikings seemingly did the right thing by making AP inactive for Week 2's blowout loss to the Patriots, which most people saw coming anyway because the Patriots are hell to play against the week after they've lost a game.
So, let's review:
-The Vikings didn't play their best player because he's a child abuser.
-The Vikings got blown out.
We had to know the next step, right? Of course Adrian Peterson was made active for Week 3! I don't care about all the excuses GM Rick Spielman & the rest of the Vikings brass want to make. Yes, the justice system will sort it out eventually. But the bottom line here, without a shadow of a doubt is this...
-The Vikings reinstated their best player because they got their asses kicked without him.
That's all there is to it. They don't care about what he's been accused of, whether he's guilty or not guilty, what everybody's stance regarding child abuse is, or what anybody else thinks in the locker room or out of the locker room. If the other players support it, that's great! If the fans support it, great! But the bottom line is this:
-The Vikings reinstated their best player because they got their asses kicked without him.
I'd have more respect for this guy if he just admitted they reinstated AP because they got their asses kicked without him.
That's all that matters in this league. Production. Never forget that. You think Ray Rice would have had his contract terminated by the Ravens if they thought he was still the player he was a few years ago? If Ray Rice produced last year at the age of twenty-six the way Peterson still produces at the age of twenty-nine, he would still be a Baltimore Raven & would play as soon as his suspension gets overturned. But no, Rice's production was going down year by year & they were going to have to find a replacement for him pretty soon anyway. Even if Rice does get that suspension overturned, & I think he will because of the whole double jeopardy thing, I'd be awfully surprised if somebody hired him.
These teams don't care what their stars do. Oh, if the fourth wide receiver or the nickel cornerback does something shady they'll throw the book down on them. A guy on the way out of the league better mind his ps & qs. But a star on the level of Adrian Peterson? Well, that's another story. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to even have a chance of winning six games in this league. Suspending him is not an option. Not for a GM that needs wins to keep his job, not for a rookie coach that needs to win & win now to justify his hiring. If the league ends up doing something...well, they'll cross that bridge when they come to it. And with any luck, it'll be once Peterson winds down & can't produce anymore.
That's what the Vikings care about. That's what they all care about.
Saints. Their offense is back in the Superdome so they'll be fine. Peterson might not even end up playing if enough sponsors express discontent. If there's one group that the NFL caters towards more than their owners & their stars, it's their sponsors.
Titans at Bengals (-7): Life as a Bengals fan: I am absolutely terrified that the national media is starting to notice my football team after having two good performances to start the season. This is not what Bengals fans are accustomed to, nor does it make us feel good about our future prospects. Because seemingly whenever things start to look really good for the Bengals & we realize they're actually a pretty good football team, disaster strikes. Often, it's in the form of losing to a football team that they have absolutely no business losing to.
And wouldn't you know it, a football team that the Bengals have absolutely no business losing to is coming to Paul Brown Stadium this week. After a solid Week 1 victory in Kansas City the Titans went back home and proved to everybody that they are who we thought they were. DeMarco Murray ran all over the Titan defense, Jake Locker made the fantasy experts that were pimping him all week look like complete morons, & HOW BOUT DEM TITANS became HOW BOUT DEM COWBOYS. Not a good week unless you're Delanie Walker, who might be somebody to keep an eye on this week.
On paper this looks like an easy Bengals pick. I'm rolling with it, but I'm very, very, very, very worried about it.
Ravens (-2) at Browns: The Ravens played the Bengals close late & blew out the Steelers. Nothing to complain about there. This will be their first road trip but those things generally don't harm them too much. Cleveland was their first home, after all. Too soon?
The Browns have also been off to a good start. That first half against Pittsburgh was nothing to write home about, but ever since then they've been doing some good stuff. Terrance West has taken advantage of Ben Tate missing time to show he's one of the best rookies out there & has led a strong rushing offense. Brian Hoyer's been competent enough with some help from Andrew Hawkins. The defense hasn't been great, but Cleveland's been making big plays when they need to.
I think this will be a close game. The Ravens have some extra rest as an advantage & I think their defense will do a better job of stopping West & making life tough for Hoyer than the Steelers & Saints did. Browns could make it close though, keep an eye on that spread.
Packers at Lions (-1.5): I'm a little surprised the Lions are favored here after putting up a whopping seven points in Carolina, but then again they looked really good at Ford Field in Week 1 & blew the Packers out the last time they met in Detroit. The Packers didn't look too great against the Jets but made the classic comeback to get the job done.
I think Megatron & the offense come back strong enough this week to give the Lions the advantage. The Packers haven't shown me enough on defense to indicate that they can stop this team. Now, if it was in Green Bay where the Lions haven't won since 1991, I'd probably have a different answer for you.
Colts (-6.5) at Jaguars: The Colts are 0-2, but there's no real reason for Indy fans to be pushing the panic button. Denver & Philadelphia are really good teams, both of which should be in Super Bowl contention. Losing to them is nothing to be ashamed of...though you really would have liked to hold on to that lead against Philly.
Now, if they lose to Jacksonville...then it might be time to push that button. The Colts should win & I see no reason why it can't be by more than 6.5. The Jags looked awful in the 2nd half against Philly & absolutely horrendous against Washington.
Raiders at Patriots (-14.5): There's not a line high enough for me to not pick against the Raiders here. James Jones did go for 112 yards last week. Darren McFadden got a TD to make whoever's crazy enough to have him on their fantasy team at this point happy. Derek Carr was the Raiders' leading rusher. That's pretty much all I have to say about them. The Patriots should have no issues here.
49ers (-2.5) at Cardinals: I don't think the 49ers are a bad team, but they lost to the Bears in as bad a fashion as you could hope for. Bad interceptions, bad penalties, bad coaching, just bad everything led to the 49ers blowing that lead. Two straight games of not showing up in the second half is not a good sign if you want to be a contender.
Arizona wants to be a contender too. They ran into a problem before the Giants game when Drew Stanton became their quarterback, but things seemed to work all right enough in New Jersey. That being said, the 49ers have a much tougher defense & Stanton didn't exactly have good numbers against the Giants. I'm thinking 49ers by a field goal due to some strong defense.
Broncos at Seahawks (-4.5): We remembered last week that the Seahawks are not as good on the road as they are at home. Remember when they only won at home? They've managed to get a little bit better at these road games, but they're still at their best in Seattle...where they happen to be playing this week.
Remember the last time these two teams played? I expect it to be a lot closer, which wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot, but still. The Broncos have looked all right the first two weeks, but I wouldn't say they're dramatically improved from last year or anything. It's never easy to pick against the Seahawks in Seattle, and I wouldn't advise it here. They'll be ready for this one.
Chiefs at Dolphins (-4.5): I'm not really sure what to make of either of these teams. KC looked better in Week 2, but Jamaal Charles' injury situation has me worried. We'll see what Knile Davis can do. Miami looked worse in Week 2, & Knowshon Moreno's injury situation has me worried. Lamar Miller & Daniel Thomas haven't been a great combination in recent years & I doubt they'll be better now.
This won't be one of the featured games, and it could very well come down to who has a better game between Ryan Tannehill & Alex Smith, the 29th & 35th ranked quarterbacks respectively in quarterback rating. Good times! The Dolphins have homefield and probably a better defense, so I begrudgingly go with them.
Steelers at Panthers (-3.5): Big Ben vs. Killa Cam! Not exactly the biggest SNF matchup of the season, but it should be an interesting game. The Panthers are a strong 2-0 with a win without Cam & a win with him. The constant has been the defense, which kept them in the game with Tampa & totally shut down Detroit. I would expect a similar performance this week against a Steeler team that has been offensively challenged since the first half of the Browns game.
Jeremy Lambert wants me to keep picking against the Panthers, but I do what I want & I want to pick them this week. I wonder if there's a funny bet between him & Larry Csonka for this game. I also wonder how much of this I'll be watching in comparison to WWE's Night of Champions show...probably a lot because I'll need Cam to get me some fantasy points.
Monday, September 22
Bears at Jets (-2.5): The Bears, man. They had no business winning that game in San Francisco after going down 17-0, but everything in the world broke their way & Brandon Marshall single handedly outscored the 49ers. As talented as Alshon Jeffery is, it's going to be tough for him to break up the long-running bromance between Marshall & Jay Cutler. It's also going to be tough for us to figure out what to make of these Bears.
If the Bears excel at making the most of opponents' mistakes, that's a really bad sign for the New York Jets. After getting 11 penalties for 105 yards in Week 1, the Jets merely got 7 penalties for 82 yards in Week 2. They're 1-1 & gave the Packers a heck of a game in Lambeau Field, but they even managed to mess that up by calling a timeout to negate a game-tying touchdown. This team could screw up a wet dream, and the Bears should be able to take advantage of the situation.
And there's another week in the books! Thanks for reading & don't forget all the other great content Dustin provides here on the Ultimate Football Blog! Slammin' Steve Cook signing off.
Last week: 7-9
Overall record: 15-16-1
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