A number of teams are on their bye week here in Week 4, and unfortunately for us football fans they're some of the finest teams in the National Football League. Seattle & Denver, the two defending conference champions that gave us a spectacular Super Bowl rematch in Week 3 will be nowhere to be seen. Two of our three remaining undefeated teams, Cincinnati & Arizona, are getting a week off. Both teams have huge road games coming up in Week 5, as the Cardinals go up to Denver to take on the Broncos while the Bengals head to Foxborough to take on the Patriots under the bright Sunday night lights. Those are the types of games you'll gladly take an extra week to prepare for, so even though Week 4 is a really early time to get a bye week, they won't complain too much.
(Quick note on my Bengals...three weeks is a small sample size and there's no need to get carried away about too much at this point. That being said, I have never seen a Cincinnati Bengals team come out of the gate looking like this. They have been the best looking team on the field to start this season. Offense, defense, special teams, everybody's doing their job. However...it's a long long long long long season. We don't decide who the best team in the NFL is is until early February, so whether you're the best team in September or not isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things. As a fan I'm real happy with how things have gone, but I'm not counting any chickens until they hatch.)
Cleveland & St. Louis are your other teams on bye...we don't miss them quite as much. But four of the top teams in the league being out of the mix makes for a less appealing slate of games in my opinion. Then again, it seems like every time that I say that I wind up being entertained by a series of close game. So buy the ticket & take the ride...LET'S HOOK EM UP!
Thursday, September 25
Giants at Washington (-3.5): Look at the Giants fans coming out of the woodwork. They'd been a bit quiet the first couple of weeks while their team was getting spanked by the Lions & Cardinals, but now that they got a win under their belt they're going to the Super Bowl baybay! Eli Manning didn't throw any picks, Rashad Jennings had himself a game pounding the rock, and that Giants D got three interceptions from Ryan Fitzpatrick! The Giants are a good team, people! Just ask them, they'll tell you.
To me it looks like the team that the Eagles need to worry about in the NFC East resides in Ashburn, Virginia & plays their games in Landover, Maryland. The Kirk Cousins Era has gotten off to a rip-roaring start for Washington...they lost to the Eagles last week but it wasn't due to a lack of scoring. The defense had their problems keeping Chip Kelly's team from scoring, but did get some shots in on Nick Foles & LeSean McCoy when they got their chance.
My boy the AZN is breaking his live NFL virginity on Thursday night. I think he'll see a winner, as Washington will beat New York by a touchdown.
Sunday, September 28
Packers (-2) at Bears: For as long as I can remember, the Green Bay Packers have hung their hat on their offense. From Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers it feels like Green Bay has never had too many problems putting up points with a high-powered passing attack. So far this year, that high-powered passing attack is 1 for 3. Showed up strong against the Jets, not so much against the Seahawks & Lions. Things are not clicking yet in Green Bay, to say the least. The schedule lightens up a bit for them here in the next three weeks, they better hope they figure things out before they fall too far behind the Bears & Lions.
Chicago's been very good against the pass so far, which does not bode well for a Green Bay team that hasn't quite figured things out yet. Matt Forte should be pretty damn happy to finally go up against a team that doesn't specialize in stopping the run. He figures to take advantage of that, especially since Jay Cutler struggles against Green Bay & they'll be looking to limit that weakness.
Last week I had no idea why the Bears were underdogs in New York. This week they're underdogs in their own home. They beat the Packers in Chicago last year, & I think they can beat the Packers in Chicago this year. Go with Da Bears.
Bills at Texans (-3): These two teams came back to Earth last week. I thought good times could continue a bit longer for Buffalo, but San Diego traveled better than I expected. The Bills are who we thought they were. They have a couple of good running backs, and a good receiver, but as long as we're not sure about E.J. Manuel we're not going to be sure about this team.
The Texans are also who we thought they were. Their success, or lack thereof, rests on the shoulders of Arian Foster. If he's playing, they've got a chance. If he isn't, they don't. That's why I changed my pick in the OTT pick em contest to the Giants on Sunday morning when I found out that Foster wouldn't be playing. Alfred Blue has some potential, but he isn't Arian Foster. You've gotta have Arian Foster when your quarterback is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Foster's got a hamstring injury, and you know how those things just linger.
I think the Texans have a better defense than the Bills. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than E.J. Manuel. That's why I'm going with the Texans on their homefield, though I could see this ending up as a 3 point game & a push. Feels like that kind of struggle to me.
Titans at Colts (-7.5): I said in this space last week that Colts fans need not worry too much about being 0-2, and sure enough they blew the Jaguars out of the water like everybody expected. I'm still not sure about anything on this football team outside of Andrew Luck, but they get the pleasure of playing in a division with a horrendous team (Jaguars), a bad team (Titans), and a good bad team (Texans). That should be enough to ensure a division championship. If I was Arizona or even St. Louis I'd be petitioning the league office to move my team to this division. Arizona has a great argument, actually. It's further south than most of the teams in the division.
Having seen the Titans on full display in Cincinnati last week, I can confirm that they are indeed a bad football team. Against the Bengals they looked downright ghastly, but I think they can rise up to the level of "bad" against lesser opponents. Bishop Sankey looked pretty good when he played & I think once he gets that starting running back job he's going to be a force to be reckoned with. The defense hasn't given up a lot of yards, but they haven't needed to due to mistakes on the other side of the ball & lots of clock killing in the second half. I think at the end of the year the most inexplicable result will be the Titans blowing out the Chiefs in KC in Week 1.
Jake Locker might not be playing this week. That does not make a difference. Colts are winning & covering even if Warren Moon's quarterbacking the Titans.
Panthers at Ravens (-3): I can't figure these Panthers out. I pick against them the first two weeks & they win. I pick them in Week 3 & they get their asses handed to them by the Steelers. It's a weird thing. The Ravens are a bit easier to figure out. They're good. They needed some luck to beat the Browns, but as I've said before in this column, the Browns are tricky to play in Cleveland. Just ask the Saints.
I don't want to get off on a non-football tangent this week, but I will say that the Steve Biscotti press conference on Monday made me really glad I'm not a Ravens fan. I mean, I'm a Bengals fan & I'm predisposed to hate the Ravens anyway. But this fucking guy...good gravy. In fairness, I don't think there's anything he or Der Kommissar Goodell could say right now that we could or would accept. If I'm one of those guys I'm pulling a disappearing act like Roger was for a good week there. He was better off with people asking where he was than people asking what's wrong with him.
I'ma do my boy Jeremy Lambert a solid & pick the Ravens this week. It makes sense because the Ravens are at home & are a good team. Plus, if this theory of Lambert's works, I can jinx the Ravens at the same time. Win-win.
Lions (-1.5) at Jets: The Jets have been playing a lot of NFC North teams to start this season. They should have beat the Packers but couldn't get out of their own way. They dug a big hole against the Bears but were able to come back and make things interesting. The bottom line though is that they are 0-2 against the NFC North, meaning they're unlikely to win the division. They're kind of a classic bad team, one of those teams that manages to stay in games somehow but blow it at the end because that's what they do. I followed one of those for a long time, I wouldn't really recommend it.
The Lions were great in Week 1 & 3, not so good in Week 2. If you look at the Lions schedule, you may notice that Week 1 & 3 games took place in Detroit while Week 2 was in Charlotte. This game is in East Rutherford. Could be a problem. Also consider the Jets defense, which is pretty good at stopping running backs of all shapes & sizes. Bush, Bell, it ain't gonna batter.
Another tricky thing about that Jets defense...they're not so good against that pass. That's why I see Megatron going off on yet another team & the Lions knocking the Jets down to 0-3 in NFC North play.
Buccaneers at Steelers (-7): The Steelers signed James Harrison this week because all of their other linebackers got hurt during the Carolina game. Harrison had retired after spending a year in Cincinnati. During James Harrison's year in Cincinnati, I formed the following opinion on him:
He's old.
I got nothing else. Dude was lined up next to Sam Huff his rookie year. Dude was complaining about commissioner fines when Pete Rozelle was the one handing them out. He'll never forget his first on-camera interview with Ray Scott. He looked up to Red Grange when he was a kid. Have I gone on long enough here?
Gonna pick the Steelers. I can't think of anything to say about Tampa Bay after that game on Thursday other than their new uniforms are absolutely brutal & they'd be better off going back to the creamsicle unis.
Awesomesauce.
Dolphins (-4) vs. Raiders: I just want you poor folks stuck watching this game because you live in Miami or Oakland & don't have NFL Sunday Ticket or access to a bar that does, or for some reason you're a fan of these once proud franchises that are now regular sources of public ridicule to know that I feel your pain. There's nothing that could make me watch even a minute of this atrocity against the game of football.
On the bright side, the Raiders played the Patriots awfully close last week, and the Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 1. I think this says more about New England than people want to admit. I think it also says more about Roger Goodell & the NFL schedule makers than they'd like to admit that this game is taking place in London, England. Somehow I doubt that the Oakland Raiders & Miami Dolphins are going to convince the English that they should spend their weekends following the NFL instead of the Premier League.
I'll take the Raiders & the points. Why not? This could lead to Matt Moore somehow being the starting quarterback in Miami again, which I didn't even know was possible. I think this came up as a topic of conversation in Miami because there's nothing else to talk about. Baseball season's wrapping up. The U won't contend for anything this year. LeBron's gone so the Heat are off the radar. I guess there's always the Florida Panthers, but most people down there probably don't know they exist. So I guess we have to start up a QB controversy to get some conversation going. I'd feel sorry for Ryan Tannehill except he's married to Lauren Tannehill.
If there was one thing I could go back in time & tell five year old me, it would be to work on my passing skills. It is impossible to be a quarterback & not end up with somebody that looks like Lauren Tannehill. If I had realized that sooner in life, maybe things would be different. Maybe they wouldn't be. I'd at least have the knowledge, and knowing is half the battle.
But enough about my love life & all the regrets I have concerning it...we'll be here the rest of the season if I keep going on about that. SO LET'S MOVE ON SHALL WE.
Jaguars at Chargers (-13.5): This is a ton of points. But it's Jacksonville going on the road to face a good team. The Jaguars so far this year have lost by 17, 31 & 27 points. And that last one shouldn't have even been that close, Blake Bortles ran a fake spike play at the end of the game. I read people wondering why the Jaguars would choose to run that play at that point in a game because it put the play on tape for their future opponents. My response to that is it's the Jaguars so who cares. At least they figured after two & a half weeks that they might as well start playing Blake Bortles now & get him some experience. Hopefully that offensive line doesn't get him killed. There's a very good chance they will.
Chargers. Yes I know it's a ton of points, but they're at home & the Jaguars are awful. And this isn't like New England where we're not exactly sure if Tom Brady's still alive or not. Philip Rivers is alive & he's throwing to
Falcons (-2.5) at Vikings: It's happening.
The Teddy Bridgewater Era has arrived in Minnesota. It feels weird to say it's kind of fortuitous due to the fact it happened because Matt Cassel broke his foot & is going to be out for the rest of the season, but let's be real. Vikings fans need something, anything, to distract them from what's happening with the man that has to rank among the greatest Vikings of all time. The team as currently constructed isn't doing that. If they don't finish fourth in the NFC North it'll be a miracle, especially with Matt Asasita as the starting running back.
That's the downside for Teddy supporters like me. The reason I was happy he was going to Minnesota in the first place was that he would have a superstar running back to take the pressure off. Adrian Peterson would make things easier on Teddy. That was the idea. It's not happening. The kid's going into the deep end of the pool & his life perserver's been yanked out of the water. Will he survive?
Atlanta looked real good against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. I know everybody wanted to crown them after that performance from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones & the offense, but since I also saw their effort in Week 2, I'm not sure we can read anything into the Tampa game other than they're really good at home & Tampa stinks. Vegas isn't biting too hard on them either, that's why the line isn't too ridiculous here. I do think the Falcons are the right pick here, as I don't think the Vikings defense is good enough to stop the Falcons passing game no matter which receivers are healthy.
I do hope I'm wrong though, as there's nothing I'd like to see more this week than Teddy Bridgewater lead his team to victory in dramatic fashion.
Eagles at 49ers (-5.5): The Philadelphia Eagles are the Greg "The Hammer" Valentine of the NFL. It takes them at least fifteen minutes to get warmed up! They've fallen behind by double digits in each of their first three games & come back to get the victory every single time. People were worried about Nick Foles without DeSean Jackson, but Foles is leading the league in passing yards & helping the Eagles overcome a lack of production from a banged up consensus #1 fantasy pick LeSean McCoy.
(Not that I'm bitter since I have him in a couple of leagues....nahhhhhhh.)
If the Eagles are a second half team, the 49ers are definitely a first half team. They've outscored their opponents 59-16 in the first half during their first three games. Good start, right? Nah, they've followed that up by getting outscored 52-3 in the second half.
59-16 in the first half. 3-52 in the second. These are unbelievable numbers. You're going to give me a second half team against a first half team & they're going to be 5.5 point dogs? SOUNDS GOOD TO ME HOSS! Take the Eagles, frankly I think they're the better team and are going to win this game anyway.
Saints (-3) at Cowboys: The Saints went back home & things were A-OK. The offense didn't exactly light up the scoreboard, but they took care of business against a bad team. Drew Brees was even fired up enough to try & push somebody!
Yeah, that wasn't too good. The Cowboys didn't look too good early on in St. Louis. Lots of fun was had at the expense of Tony Romo throwing a pick six, but they completed THE BIGGEST COMEBACK IN COWBOY HISTORY. Against the St. Louis Rams. So let's not get too excited here. The Saints haven't looked great to start the season, but I think the Cowboys defense is just what the doctor ordered for them.
Monday, September 29
Patriots (-3.5) at Chiefs: I don't think the Patriots are the Patriots we knew & loved for a very long time. Some have told me "Yeah, but you know they throw out a clunker every once in awhile." Yeah, well they lost to the freaking Dolphins in Week 1 & struggled to beat the Oakland Freaking Raiders in Week 3. Minnesota in Week 2 was no problem...but for God's sake it's Minnesota. Tom Brady has yet to deliver this season, leaving the defense to take care of business, which to their credit they have. Against very bad teams.
These Patriots are going to get exposed sooner rather than later...I wish I could say with certainty that it would be this week because Dustin James would give me a raise, but I'm still not sure what to make of the Chiefs. If I completely ignore Week 1 I'd feel all right about them. They played Denver close enough & blew out that Miami team that beat New England. There's still that matter of losing to Tennessee that I can't get out of my mind...it's like when you find out that girl you like slept with a guy you despise. You still kinda like the girl, but there's that unsettling feeling in the back of your mind. The Chiefs look good...but they lost to the Titans.
Can you push it out of your mind? More emotionally stable people could.
Even though the Patriots are overrated, I still think they have enough to handle Kansas City. The Pats are tied for the most takeaways in the league, & it's not like Alex Smith doesn't have a three interception game in him. If the Pats can get these takeaways they will win this game in somewhat easy fashion. If not, it'll be a slobberknocker.
Well that's all the damage I can do here. Don't forget to check out all the other great content here at the Ultimate Football Blog! Until next week this is Slammin' Stevie Cook signing off.
Last Week: 8-7-1
Season Record: 23-23-2
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