As y'all know by now, the first rankings formulated by the playoff committee were released on Tuesday, and this is going to be a weekly thing until the end of the season. If this week's any indication, the NCAA, ESPN & everybody involved has a hit on their hands, as everybody's going bonkers & can't stop talking about who's in the top four, who's not in the top four, which conferences are represented, which aren't, who's too low, who's too high...it's a never-ending cornucopia of discussion & I couldn't be happier!
First of all, the committee got it right where the media & the coaches haven't, and properly included Louisville in the top 25. The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in college football & have lost two games on the road by single digits. They're not as good offensively as they were last year when they had Teddy Bridgewater running the plays, but the defense is even better now than they were when noted defensive genius Charlie Strong was coaching the team. Todd Grantham might not have been good enough for Georgia fans, but he's just fine & dandy for Louisville. Once Bobby Petrino gets his offense clicking (with Devante Parker back & Michael Dyer healthy it seems like that'll happen pretty soon), this team's gonna be a tough out for any team on their schedule...including #2 Florida State tonight!
So they appeased me. They did not appease people that were sick & tired of the constant focus on the SEC West. Mississippi State at 1, Auburn at 3 & Ole Miss at 4...I mean, I don't really see the reason for surprise here. Ole Miss might seem high because they just lost at LSU on Saturday night, but I actually give the committee credit there for not getting caught up in the moment and dropping a team several spots just because they lost last week. LSU's a good well-coached team getting right after some early bumps, and it's always tough to go into Baton Rouge for a night game & come out with a victory over the Tigers. I see no reason to punish Ole Miss for that, so good on the committee there.
What I think the people complaining are missing is that there's so so so so so so so so so much football left to be played. Mississippi State's going to play Alabama & Ole Miss. Auburn's going to play Alabama, Ole Miss & Georgia. Ole Miss is going to play Auburn & Mississippi State. And let's not forget about Alabama, or Georgia, who's going to win the SEC East & play one of these teams in the championship game. There's still a lot to be sorted out in the SEC, and odds are that these teams are going to beat each other up & somebody will emerge as the dominant team. You might have one other team that you can make an argument for. But 3 SEC teams are not going to make the playoff when it's all said and done...as long as some other teams take care of business.
If Oregon wins out, they're in. If TCU, Baylor or Kansas State win out in the Big XII, they're in. If Michigan State wins out they'll be in. Rest of the Big 10 need some things to fall their way but it's not impossible. I think Florida State can survive one loss, especially if it's at a ranked team like Louisville. So let's not sound the alarms just yet on the SEC Bias.
ESPN biases are nothing new, mind you. We've been complaining about the Yanks/Sox stuff for years. The New York Jets are only relevant because ESPN thinks they are. Duke basketball. LeBron James. I think the difference between the perceived SEC bias & other ESPN biases is that college football has always been decided by outside forces. The rest of those sports are sorted out through records & tournaments that ultimately determine an actual champion. College football has never been that way...until now. And even now we're limited to 4 teams. It'll expand soon enough once people realize how much money can be made. But I do believe the reason that ESPN's SEC bias has come under fire is because of the whole "College football doesn't actually have a real champion" thing.
The response to this has been interesting. I'm probably in a minority here, but I kinda respect Brent Musburger for saying that the SEC has the best teams & we should deal with it. Chris Fowler & Kirk Herbstreit keep hemming & hawing about it, which is how younger people deal with these things. Sometimes we're too afraid to take a position on anything because we're afraid of offending people. Brent's old & he doesn't give a fuck, so he'll call it like he sees it, which is the way that his bosses see it. I respect that. At least the guy takes a position, even if it's his bosses's position.
So the point I'm getting at here is that absolutely nothing has been decided yet. Thursday night's game will have a big impact on the playoff, as will Saturday's games, and every single game for the rest of the season. That's the thing college football has over other sports. Where does the regular season matter more?
Thursday, October 30
Saints (-2.5) at Panthers: The first two games in the column this week feature three members of the worst division in football. At least the Panthers & the Saints appear to be the top two teams in the division, though that might mean an 8-8 record wins the division. I think one of these teams gets there, and I think it'll be the Saints because after this week they still have five home dates on the schedule & a game at Tampa in case they slip up in one of those.
The interesting thing here is that the Saints have yet to win a game on the road. Sure, they looked impressive on Sunday night against the Packers, but haven't we all learned that there's a pretty big difference between Home Saints & Road Saints? That might be trumped by the Panthers, who have won one game in their last six outings and yet currently sit in first place in the NFC South. I've been saying for the past couple of months that the Saints will eventually take control & get themselves a playoff berth, and this week will help that along. Expect Cam Newton & the offense to play better this week than they did against the Seahawks, but it's not like that would take much. The Panthers defense gives up too many points here.
Sunday, November 2
Buccaneers at Browns (-6.5): I think the Bucs' win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 4 has taken the place of Tennessee over Kansas City as the Most Inexplicable Result of the 2014 season. The Browns took advantage of a weak Oakland team at home last week & the result should be similar this week, especially now that the Bucs have sold off their useful defensive players. I have nothing else to add to this other than the AFC North cellar-dwelling Browns would currently be first place in the NFC South. It's been a bad year to have the NFC South in my divisional fantasy football league.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-4): Before we get into this game I think something important needs to be discussed that was completely swept under the rug by the NFL, ESPN & most of the people watching the Monday Night Football game between the teams from Dallas & Washington. Tony Romo left the game with what appeared to be a serious back injury suffered during a sack. His back's been a concern for awhile now, he was down on the turf for several minutes & Brandon Weeden was left to lead the team against DC. Not an ideal situation, but these things happen & NFL teams need to be prepared for them.
About 30 minutes or so later, Romo pops back up on the sidelines wanting to play. Now, I'm no doctor, but it seemed fairly obvious to me that something had to be helping the Dallas QB1 feeling good enough to get back in there not long after he stayed down on the turf several minutes after getting sacked in an uncomfortable manner. At some point, somebody should tell the player that it's for the best they not go back in that evening. The players have to be told that, because players want to play. I don't fault Romo, in whatever state he was in, for wanting to go back out & do his job & try to lead the Cowboys to victory. But somebody on that sideline has to realize that Tony Romo has probably been shot up with a pretty good amount of drugs to ease the pain he's going through. And in that state, he probably shouldn't be entrusted with leading a football team.
Hell, the owner was on the goddamn sideline because he likes being there.
But Tony Romo was allowed to go back out there. And anybody watching should have been able to realize that he shouldn't be out there. And Dallas lost.
As much as people claim to care about player safety these days, the silence amongst the majority of the NFL fanbase & people covering the NFL speaks volumes. Tony Romo was sent out onto the field without complete control of his faculties to kill or be killed, and the majority of the people watching & covering the NFL didn't give a fuck. That's all that needs to be said as to why the NFL has drug their asses changing things in order to make things safer for the player. The fans don't care. The media doesn't care. People like to act like they care when they hear about concussions & deaths & unseemly things like that, but in the heat of the moment when a football game needs to be won? Nah, let's send out the guy with the bad back that spent the last 30 minutes getting shot up with the drugs. And when he fails, let's talk about how he couldn't get the job done & how that doesn't make him elite.
Makes a lot of sense.
The Cardinals keep winning. I don't know how they're doing it with Carson Palmer & Larry Fitzgerald a good eight years after they would have been at their peak together, but it's a thing & it's a happening. I'm not sure they win, but I think they can at least make it a field goal game. Romo is expected to be back this week, as Dr. Jones expects him to manage the pain & man up. He better watch out, those Cards have a pretty rough defense.
Eagles (-2) at Texans: The Eagles are coming off a close loss in Arizona while the Texans spent their Week 7 beating on Zach Mettenberger. The Texans are 4-4. with one win against a team with a winning record. They really don't have much going on other than Arian Foster & JJ Watt, while the Eagles have all sorts of weapons. Darren Sproles might even be back. I think it'll be a close game like the spread indicates, but the Eagles should be able to win on the road.
I also think Nick Foles will have a good game, much to the dismay of people like Dustin James that want to run him out of town for a system quarterback.
Jets at Chiefs (-9.5): Michael Vick will apparently be starting for the Jets this week. It doesn't matter if Boomer Esiason starts for the Jets this week, the Chiefs are winning & covering.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11): Who Dey? The Bengals got back on track in Week 8 with a big win against the Baltimore Ravens, but they have to be careful about not overlooking the lowly Jags in advance of a Thursday night date with their divisional rivals from Cleveland. If they do, the Jaguars could get within 10 points here. I think the Bengals take care of business & the defense that's getting healthy again takes care of Blake Bortles & the Robinsons. That kinda sounds like an R&B group, doesn't it?
Oh, and AJ Green's probably going to be back. That should help things.
Chargers at Dolphins (-2): Miami's defense had themselves a day against Jacksonville. It was a good day to stream them if you're a person that likes to switch your fantasy football defense by the week. I don't really like them this week against Philip Rivers & the Chargers, as one might say they're a wee bit better than Blake Bortles & the Jaguars. Just a teeny tiny bit, yeah.
This is a pretty big game for San Diego heading into their bye week. They're on a two game losing streak right now, and while they have easy games coming up right afterwards with two teams that want to move to Los Angeles, their last five weeks look like this:
at Baltimore
vs New England
vs Denver
at San Francisco
at Kansas City
I'd be hard pressed to find a tougher ending stretch in the league than what San Diego faces, so it goes without saying that they need to win games like this one to keep from getting into a hole they can't dig out of. I think they get it done, as Rivers does his usual thing & the SD defense shuts down Ryan Tannehill & the Dolphin offense to ensure Chargers victory.
Washington at Vikings (-2.5): Y'all know I love Teddy Bridgewater, but watching this game rates just below dinner with the Kardashians on the list of things I'd like to do this Sunday. I imagine Washington's strategy will be to heavily blitz Teddy just like they did Tony Romo on Monday night...the Viking offense didn't do well against the Detroit or Buffalo defenses, but managed to keep the Bucs at bay on Sunday. Teddy also tends to do well against blitzes in general, at least so far. RG3 might be back this week, or he might not be back. I have a tough time seeing DC getting two straight road wins, so I'll ride with the Vikings and hopefully they'll make the Native Americans there protesting the Washington team happy.
Rams at 49ers (-10): The last time these teams played was two weeks ago in St. Louis. San Fran won by 14. I expect a similar result here, if not even more lopsided, so the 49ers should cover.
Broncos (-3) at Patriots: MANNING. BRADY. Two of the greatest QBs in NFL history hook it up one more time this week. If you're a football fan and you can't get excited about that, I'm not sure that you even have a pulse. When you take that off the table, you've still got two of the best teams in the league. Manning has thrived off of weapons like D & J Thomas, Brady's got the Gonk & gets stuff out of guys like Brandon LaFell. Denver has one of the best rush defenses in the league while New England's got one of the best pass defenses. Both teams are heading in on four-game winning streaks.
Simply put, this is big time.
As great as both QBs are, when comparing them it's tough not to talk about Brady's 10-5 advantage on the scoreboard. It's tough not to remember what happened last season, when the Patriots won in Foxburough during the regular season while the Broncos won the one that mattered in Denver during the postseason. That regular season game featured the Pats coming back from a 24-0 deficit to force overtime & get the win. We can only hope for similar drama this week.
But my pick comes down to this: Tom Brady is 10-5 against Peyton Manning, and you're giving me the Patriots and three points at home. Maybe there needs to be further intellectual analysis, but it seems pretty cut & dry to me.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15): The Seahawks kind of got back on track last week in Carolina. 13-9 isn't going to impress most of the offensive-minded football fans out in TVLand, but it's like I always say: They don't ask you if you won them-oh wait that's exactly what they ask you.
The question here isn't if they're going to win. That's pretty much a sure thing, at least as close to a sure thing as there is in the National Football League. The Raiders are downright abysmal in every facet of the game & 0-16 is in play. The question is if the Seahawks can put up enough points to cover the spread.
I think they do. The Raiders have given up at least 16 points in every game this season & the only time the Seahawks scored less than 16 was last week. And who says you don't use math when you're an adult?
Ravens at Steelers: Unless I'm forgetting something, which is highly likely, this is the first game of the season that's been a pick 'em at this point in the week. You might remember that the last time these teams played, the Ravens housed the Steelers 26-6 in Baltimore the game after they lost to Cincinnati. Hey, guess what the Ravens did last week...they lost to Cincinnati! Sounds familiar, right?
But now it's time to hop on the Pittsburgh Steeler bandwagon. Big Benny threw for 522 last week and now Steeler Fan is awake. It'd be nice if we could have a week where we don't have to deal with either Bandwagon Steeler Fan or Bandwagon Cowboy Fan going on & on about how Roethlisberger/Romo is the best QB ever or Brown/Bryant is the best WR ever or Bell/Murray is the best RB in the league or how nobody plays shutdown defense like their team or falling back on "Hey remember those rings we won forty/twenty years ago?".
And they think they won those rings even though all they contributed to the efforts were prayers to the porcelain gods & purchases of championship gear.
I still can't figure the Steelers out. They beat the Colts last week, sure, but that's a team that also got blown out by the Browns & blew a game at home to the Tampa Freaking Bay Buccaneers. If they can win this game, their next two dates on the road against the Jets & Titans mean that they'll most likely be 8-3 heading into their bye week.
Knowing the Steelers luck over the past forty years, that's probably what's going to happen.
Monday, November 3
Colts (-3) at Giants: The Colts had a pretty rough week in Pittsburgh & are continuing their road trip this week in East Rutherford. I think this week goes a lot better for them since the Giants pretty much have no secondary at this point thanks to injuries. Andrew Luck vs. a depleted secondary sounds good to me. The key for Indy is that they need to hold Eli Manning under 522 yards.
I think that's possible. Ride with the Colts on Monday night. The Giants don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Andrew Luck, even if Odell Beckham Jr. is apparently an Old Dirty Bastard. That is what ODB means, right? I can't keep up with the kids & their new-fangled words. This is Slammin' Stevie Cook signing off.
Last Week: 8-7
Season Record: 57-61-3
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