Anyway, it's a big week even though there aren't as many games. Let's hook em up!
Thursday, November 6
Browns at Bengals (-6): One of the better stories this NFL season has been that of Bengals defensive tackle Devon Still. His four year old daughter Leah is fighting pediatric cancer and has been an inspiration to Devon as he's made his way from the Bengals practice squad to the main roster & become a key piece of the defensive line. She'll be in attendance on Thursday night as he & the Bengals take on the Cleveland Browns. You'd hate to think that the Bengals would disappoint the girl with a loss, and I don't think they will.
However...
The Bengals/Browns games usually end up closer than predicted & it's a Thursday night game so it'll probably be low-scoring. I think the Bengals win, but the Browns and the points is the smart pick here. You have to stay away from emotion when picking these games. I'd like to put on my homer hat & say the Bengals win by double digits, but I don't see that happening. Especially in a prime time game.
Come on Browns, you wouldn't want to ruin that girl's day, would you? You heartless so & sos...
Sunday, November 9
Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills: The Chiefs are from the Show Me State, which is ironic (or not, I've long since lost track of what's actually ironic & what isn't) because this is a game featuring two teams that need to show us something. I think one of these teams has the potential to contend for a wild card in the AFC. The Chiefs seem like a pretty solid bet if San Diego continues to fade. They've got a couple of good running backs & a solid defense, & Alex Smith typically doesn't make too many mistakes.
The Bills have a couple of eh running backs & a solid defense. They also have Kyle Orton. Sammy Watkins is better than anything the Chiefs are throwing out there WR wise, but he aggravated a groin injury on Wednesday & those always scare me off. Chiefs it is, then.
Yes, I just picked a game based off a dude's groin. I'm surprised this is the first time that's happened.
Dolphins at Lions (-3): OK, so the one game I totally swung & missed on last week was the Chargers/Dolphins tilt. I overrated the Chargers & underrated the Dolphins...these things happen. The key is not to over-react in the opposite direction the next week and lose money on them twice in a row. Miami's good, but they're heading into Detroit to face a Lions team that's defying all odds & playing good football this season while not doing anything too stupid.
I still expect this to blow up.
But not this week. Add in a little bit of Megatron & the Lions should have enough to get by the pesky Fins this week.
Cowboys (-6) vs Jaguars: This is the last London game of the season. I think. It won't be long before we have one game a week there because of Roger Goodell's fetishization of the English culture. I had an English teacher in high school that was obsessed with all things United Kingdom, and that's my only explanation of this situation. I guess it's a good thing Goodell isn't all about the Gaza strip, huh?
This is another London game where I wish we could leave both teams there. The Jags are their usual putrid selves, and the Cowboys are their usual annoying selves. Tony Romo may or may not be playing, I think I'm going to make it easy on me & pick the Cowboys if he's healthy & plays, and the Jaguars if he doesn't. We'll know by Sunday.
Hey, you can't expect me to endorse Brandon Weeden. I'd endorse either of Kentucky's US senators before I get excited about that slug. No, I take that back, there's not a QB in the league I think that lowly of. Not even Geno Smith.
Don't worry, that's my only political commentary this week. I also have to say it's a shame that Oregon legalized pot, since I'll have to find a new website if I do this column next year. Ain't no way Dustin's going to be productive enough to keep this site going.
49ers at Saints (-4.5): I think these teams are good. Maybe. They usually are. New Orleans does still sit on top of their putrid division. San Fran is at .500 & hasn't fallen out of contention for anything just yet. But it's getting to the point where both of these teams need to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. I like the Saints here because you're getting Home Drew Brees & the 49ers might be on the verge of falling apart. Though there have been problems with performance in New Orleans, I've heard nothing suggesting any sort of turmoil within the team. I think injuries are the main source of consternation, and once the team gets healthy they should at least take the South without a problem.
Titans at Ravens (-9.5): The Ravens have lost two straight on the road to division rivals Cincinnati & Pittsburgh. You know they gotta be happy to be home, and that's really bad news for Tennessee. The Ravens will be looking to make a big statement this week. I'm not sure you can make this line too high for me, I'm that sold on Baltimore this week.
Steelers (-4.5) at Jets: Only 4.5? Seriously? Jump on the Steelers here. Benny Roethlisberger's on one of those stretches of great play and there's no chance of the putrid Jets offense keeping up with them.
Falcons (-1) at Buccaneers: Mike Glennon announced on his radio show that Josh McCown will be re-taking the starting QB position in Tampa this week. Putting aside the ridiculousness of Glennon being the one to make this announcement, the fact is that there's no real reason to make the change. Glennon hasn't been setting the world on fire, but he's thrown 10 TDs vs 6 INTs and hasn't been the reason that Tampa Bay sits at 1-7. Putting in McCown, who did absolutely nothing of value the first two & a half games of the season, can only be seen as an attempt to justify the ridiculous free agent signing & evidence that Mike Glennon doesn't factor in Tampa's plans going forward. It's that guy in your fantasy league that makes trades for the sake of making trades & has no real idea what he's doing other than shaking things up.
The Falcons don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence these days, but they are coming off a bye week & spanked the Bucs the last time they played. Good enough for me!
Broncos (-11.5) at Raiders: This line would probably be somewhere near twenty if the Broncos had beaten the Patriots & the Raiders weren't close against Seattle last week. I'd take the Broncos if the line was somewhere near twenty. They got whooped by New England and just aren't going to be a very happy bunch to be around this week. On the bright side for Oakland, I do think they might actually get a win this season. They're getting closer by the week...if they were playing almost anybody else this week I'd give them a shot. But not Denver.
Rams at Cardinals (-7): I was looking forward to making this an easy Cardinals pick, but man the Rams seem to be getting peskier & peskier by the week. Can they follow up a win in San Francisco with a win in Arizona?
Nah. I love Austin Rivers Davis & maybe he'll find something with Kenny Britt, but the Cardinals are on one of those hot streaks you gotta keep riding.
Giants at Seahawks (-9): There has not been a tougher NFL homefield environment over the past several years than Qwest Field in Seattle. The vaunted 12th Man makes its presence known every single week, creating noise levels that make it tough for opponents to do much of anything. More important than that, Seattle's defense makes it tough for opponents to do much of anything. You can do all the yelling & screaming you want, but it don't mean a thing unless you got the players to back it up. Seattle has been lockdown on defense over the past several years. That's why we assume they'll win at least eight games each year.
A funny thing happened on the way to another championship though. Remember Week 1 when the Seahawks blew out Green Bay on Thursday night and everybody thought things would be business as usual? They haven't been. In fact, that was the last time the Seahawks won a game by more than ten points. They've beaten some cream puffs like Oakland, Carolina & Washington, but not by more than ten points. Heck, they lost to the Rams! We keep assuming that Seattle can blow teams out by double digits without any proof that they can this season. Ignoring results like that is a good way to lose money.
The Giants don't have a whole lot going for them these days and I don't think they'll win this game. But they've been pesky on the road for most of the past decade, and we all know that just when you count them out is when they're at their most dangerous. Seattle has an all killer no filler back half of the schedule with no real pushovers until Week 17 (and the Rams beat them in St. Louis so that's not much of a pushover), they can not afford to overlook this team even if they've been blown out by some pretty good teams.
Bears at Packers (-7): I think the Chicago Bears aren't a very good football team. It took a long time for me to come to that result, as it's tough to get over the endless hype coming from Bears fans each & every year. And, frankly, they should be good. We rip on Jay Cutler but he's a fine QB1. Marshall & Jeffrey are as good a 1-2 WR punch you can ask for. Matt Forte's a heck of a running back. Bennett's a good TE.
Problem is that sometimes in the NFL you gotta stop somebody. The Bears have been unable to do that in 2014, and that offense that looks great on paper has been pretty inconsistent. Add those two things up & you have a team that isn't going to scare anybody. Especially a team like the Packers that have a consistent offense even if their defense has moments of vulnerability. Seven points is a lot to give, but I like the Packers to cover at home.
Monday, November 10
Panthers at Eagles (-6): WARNING: I'm about to talk about one of my fantasy football teams. Some people complain about people that talk about their fantasy football teams. Screw em, I'm a guy that writes an NFL picks column & podcasts about fantasy football. Occasionally there's going to be some overlap. This can not be helped. If you have a problem with this send your complaints to Dustin via Twitter @dustinjames.
I have entirely too much riding on this game. This week in the Official Offtheteam.com Fantasy Football League my 6th-ranked Omaha Beef are facing #1 Devastation Inc. in a battle of two bye-ravaged squads. He has Greg Olen & the Philadelphia kicker. I have Cam Newton, LeSean McCoy & Jonathan Stewart (bye week blues man). I am going to have to pay way too much attention to this, so I'm hoping for a shootout that's nothing like the Thursday night struggle the Panthers had with the Saints.
Will that happen? It's possible. The Eagles seem to produce well on offense no matter who the QB is, while their defense is willing to give up some points & yardage from time to time. McCoy's back to doing McCoy things. Cam needs some help. But yeah, I can talk myself into this being worthwhile. I can even see myself winning possibly maybe if my opponent forgets to replace Andrew Luck in his lineup.
But I also see the Panthers not being very good at all while the Eagles appear to be on a collision course with the playoffs. So it won't be a close game. My best chance is that Philly blows them out early, Shady scores a couple early TDs & Cam does some stuff in garbage time. Now that seems like a possibility to me.
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.
Last Week: 8-5
Season Record: 65-66-3
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