Thursday, December 24
San Diego at Oakland (-5.5): Everybody says that Christmas Eve football is a tough sell. They go on about how nobody will be watching because they'll be with their families. I don't know about most people, but I know how my family functions go. Typically the men wind up in one room while the women & kids go to wherever the tree is. Here's what the men do:
-say hi
-open a beverage
-talk about what's going on
-run out of things to say
-wonder what's on TV
-find a football game to watch
This is what happens at every wintertime family function I've ever been to. Maybe things are different in your family, but in my family, we appreciate the NFL having a game on Christmas Eve for us to watch while avoiding the women and children. Even if it's two of the lesser teams in the league. We'd either watch this or a college football bowl game in Hawaii.
As for the actual game, I expect this to be pretty close. The Chargers showed signs of life last week, and it's not like the Raiders are blowing teams out. Even if they end up winning, it'll probably be by less than 5. Gotta give families something to watch, and the teams moving to Los Angeles next season need to look competitive.
Saturday, December 26
Washington at Philadelphia (-3): I see ESPN & other media outlets (but mostly ESPN) trying to hype up Washington as a legitimate team. Don't let their facade fool you. There is no team in the NFC East that deserves a playoff slot this season. The media wants you to think so because the NFC East is the media's favorite division because the teams are in the markets with the most people & the most money. They are lying to you. Washington is a fraud of a team that won six games at home & one game on the road so far. They are not a legitimate contender for anything just because they've beat up on some mediocre teams lately. Kirk Cousins is going to trick some team into signing him to a hilariously bad contract, and good for Kirk Cousins. Remember...this is not a good football team.
Neither are the Eagles. But two teams being tied at 7-8 at the top of the division heading into the last week of the season is too hilarious not to happen.
Sunday, December 27
Chicago at Tampa Bay (-3): We're at the point of the season where there are multiple games that have no playoff relevance or reason for people outside of the teams' fanbases to care. And really, there's no reason for fans of these teams to care either. Beating Chicago doesn't mean anything, and neither does beating Tampa Bay. So I'm going to be making liberal usage of pictures of people not caring in this column if that's ok with you folks. Cool? Cool.
Buccaneers? Sure, why not.
Carolina (-7) at Atlanta: Even though the Carolina Panthers have been undefeated this season, it's tough to say that their appeal has been resonating outside the Carolina area & with casual NFL fans. Outside of Cam Newton, we can't name any Panthers. Fantasy football players know about Jonathan Stewart because the Panthers running game has long been a source of frustration in the fantasy community. They don't have any WRs of value. Greg Olsen's good, but he's not a personality. He doesn't even dab. We know they have a good defense but we don't know anybody on it. There's that kid from Notre Dame with the goofy last name. Kuechley? Is that it?
In Week 15, the Panthers finally got some national recognition outside of Cam Newton's dancing & giving touchdown balls to kids. It might have taken Odell Beckham launching his helmet directly into his helmet, but now people know who Josh Norman is. They know he's good enough of a cornerback to drive OBJ completely insane. They know that the Panthers carry baseball bats around before games for "motivation". They heard Norman talking junk about Beckham after the game. They saw Norman slamming Beckham to the ground earlier in the game when the ball was nowhere near them. It was an ugly situation all around.
It was also all anybody was talking about on Monday. The Panthers have arrived. The Panthers will go 15-0...it won't be a complete beatdown like it was last time since the Falcons will play better at home, but it should still be a pretty comfortable victory.
Dallas at Buffalo (-6):
No? OK then. Six points sounds like a lot to trust Buffalo with these days, but I'd still recommend taking the Bills because the Cowboys are that big of a mess right now.
San Francisco at Detroit (-9):
The Lions at least look like they're kind of trying & they're not running Blaine Gabbert out there.
Cleveland at Kansas City (-12.5): I think Dustin James could quarterback the Chiefs this week and they'd cover this spread. The Browns are just abysmal.
Sorry buddy, looks like you were a bad boy this year.
Indianapolis at Miami (-1.5): This is barely relevant because the Colts are still in the AFC South race that's sweeping the nation with interest and intrigue. OK, nobody gives a crap, but somebody in that division is going to the playoffs. The Dolphins are really, really bad, but I can't pick a crippled Matt Hasselbeck or an inept Charlie Whitehurst on the road. Can't do it.
New England (-3) at NY Jets: I've been picking the Pats all season, but I've got a funny feeling about this game. The Jets almost always play the Patriots close and this is a must-win game for them to keep their wild card hopes alive. The Jets defense has been very effective against Tom Brady when he had Julian Edelman, and now that he doesn't you have to think they'll be even better.
But...it's the Patriots, man. Its the chance for the Patriots to knock their division rivals a peg and probably out of the playoffs. It is tough to imagine them not taking advantage of this opportunity, because they're the New England Patriots and everything goes their way. It just does. And let's face it, another Jets season ending in this type of disappointment is merely par for the course. Typical NFL booking.
Houston at Tennessee (-4.5): I am baffled by this line. Who would favor Tennessee against anyone at this point? Does Vegas think that Zach Mettenberger is going to be the answer and turn around the Titans' fortunes? They've got a lot more problems than whichever young guy takes the QB slot on a given week. Maybe it's because of a lack of confidence in Brandon Weeden, which makes sense, but for God's sake, Houston has been running TJ Yates out there lately and telling us he's a starter. I don't care who the Texans QB is when JJ Watt is going against his old buddy Zach Mettenberger. Easiest pick of the week right here. Take a selfie with it.
Pittsburgh (-10) at Baltimore: Did you think you'd see the day when Steelers vs. Ravens would get bumped from Sunday Night Football? You know times are tough in Baltimore when Cris Collinsworth doesn't get to slobber all over the Pittsburgh Steelers & yammer on about how great they've always been and always will be as they play the Ravens in a 13-10 titanic struggle. You also know times are tough in Baltimore when the Steelers are favored by 10 points in a game that they usually struggle to score 10 points in.
And it's the right call. The Ravens are DOA & the Steelers are heading to the playoffs.
Jacksonville at New Orleans (-3.5):
Take the Jaguars, I guess.
Green Bay at Arizona (-4.5): Now this is what I'm talking about! We got the two best teams in the NFC going at it right here!
Oh, you want me to rate the Panthers ahead of them? Just cause they won 14 games? Pfft, let them do that a couple more years and then we'll talk. These teams aren't some flash in the pan that are good one year after being bad for ten. We're talking about teams with staying power here. The Packers are always good and the Cardinals have been good ever since they figured out the key to success is encouraging an older quarterback to move south for the winter months. Worked with Kurt Warner, and now it's working with Carson Palmer. The Packers aren't quite as good this year as they usually are because Aaron Rodgers is finally running out of people to throw to, but do you still want to go against him in one game with your season on the line? I'm thinking no.
Unless you're the Cardinals. Yes, I know the Honey Badger is out, but there's still enough depth on that defense to get the job relatively done. It's all relative when you're playing the Packers. I like Carson Palmer & his ridiculous group of WRs to keep up with A-Rod, and I like David Johnson as the difference making running back in a high scoring affair.
St. Louis at Seattle (-13.5): The Rams beat Seattle earlier this year & traditionally play the Seahawks close...in St. Louis. In Seattle it's usually a different story. The Seattle passing offense has been on another level lately, which has been great news for those of us that own Russell Wilson or Doug Baldwin or both in fantasy football. I expect that to continue in Championship Week, as the Seahawks should take care of business here.
NY Giants at Minnesota (-6): This seemed like a good game to flex at the time. The Vikings are one of the best stories of the season...a young team led by a young QB that's starting to figure things out at the right time and is heading to postseason play with all the hope in the world. Ever since the Vikings hired Mike Zimmer & drafted Teddy Bridgewater they've become my NFC team. I'm enjoying the ride.
The Giants have a young superstar of their own. I'm sure NBC was pretty hyped about Odell Beckham Jr. catching crazy things in prime time in a game that the Giants need to survive in the dreadful NFC East race. I'm sure Giants fans would have felt a lot better about their chances if OBJ was in Minneapolis. I know that fantasy football owners that have ridden OBJ to their championship games this week were really excited about him scoring a ton of points and leading their teams to Sunday Night Miracles.
I've got him in two. It's a thing.
But none of that is going to happen because Odell Beckham went ham on Sunday. Even if Josh Norman started it by threatening him with a bat and using homophobic slurs and bodyslamming him early in the game for no reason other than intimidation, Beckham was out of line in his response. With all the bad press the League is getting over CTE and the Concussion movie coming out soon, they had no choice but to over-react. The NFL is in the position where they have to act like they care about head injuries, and when one of their star players attacks another fringe star player, people are going to notice and people are going to freak out and something has to be done.
So Odell Beckham has disappointed millions of Giants fans, millions of NFL fans, hundreds of NBC executives, tens of teammates and coaches, and thousands of fantasy football owners. Hopefully he will learn from this and be a more willing victim in the future.
As for the pick, I like the Vikings at home with the Giants limited on offense. But you know the G-men will make it close somehow because they always do. So take the Giants and the points, which will probably be even more than listed here since I took the lines posted before the Beckham appeal.
Monday, December 28
Cincinnati at Denver (-3.5): If it's Week 16 and it's Monday Night Football, it must be the Bengals and the Broncos. Last year's Week 16 Monday meeting was a great one for Bengals fans. I don't remember much of it but it seems like I had a good time. The Bengals won a primetime football game and everybody thought it meant big things. It didn't, but it was still fun.
This year's edition is going to be quite different. We're going from Peyton Manning vs. Andy Dalton to Brock Osweiler vs. AJ McCarron. A little drop-off in quality there no matter what Bengals or Broncos fans will tell you at the bar. The game being in Denver will make a difference too. Even with global warming in full effect, McCarron's never played in the type of weather he'll face Monday night. High of 35 and a low of 15? That ain't Bama weather.
Add in the fact that the Denver defense has to be PISSED OFF about what happened to them in Pittsburgh last week, and it's going to be rough for Hue Jackson to draw up anything that will work. Brock should be solid enough for the Broncos to win this one & send Bengal fans into holiday despair.
What's the holiday season without that?
Last Week: 10-5-1
2015 Season: 123-95-7
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