One of the bad raps baseball gets from the common sports fan is that it's impossible for small-market teams to compete with large-market teams in a sport where there's no salary cap and certain teams in New York, Boston, Chicago & Los Angeles can spend as much money as humanly possible and take all the good players from the small-market teams when their contracts expire. And yes, historically nearly a fourth of the championships have been won by one franchise, but recent years have seen teams you wouldn't expect to win divisions & make deep postseason runs do exactly that. Just last season, the World Series featured teams that had last won the championship in 1985 & 1986 respectively. The National League's two most successful teams over the past decade have been from San Francisco & St. Louis. Not the biggest markets, but definitely the smartest organizations. That's how you win in baseball. You can spend more money than everybody else, but unless you spend it wisely, you're not going to win big.
That's why I'd argue that a higher percentage of baseball fans can feel optimistic about their teams heading into a season than most other sports. Last year in the NFL, you probably had seven teams in the whole league that looked like they had a legit shot at winning the championship. I'm probably being generous with that number, it was more like five. In this year's NBA, you got the Warriors & Spurs in the West & the Cavs in the East. Nobody else has a chance. In the National League alone, I can see seven teams that are legitimate contenders to win the league & win the World Series.
The downside is that I see seven teams that don't have a chance in Lexington of doing anything this season. There's a team in the middle that I'm not sure what to expect out of. But man, that top half of the league isn't bad. In today's column, we're going to look at each of the teams in the Senior Circuit & tell you why they've got a shot at winning the league. We're also going to tell you why they've got a shot at not making the playoffs.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Why they can win the National League: The Braves won 67 games last year. The last season that they won less than 67 games was 1990, when they won 65 games & finished last in the NL West. In 1991, they went from worst to first & won the National League. They were led by young players like Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Ron Gant & David Justice that came into their own ahead of schedule. Perhaps history will repeat itself, and the young talent the Braves have brought in will develop ahead of schedule.
Why they won't make the playoffs: They're a couple of years away. But Braves fans shouldn't worry too much, they have one of the best farm systems in baseball and will likely be back among the elite of the league before the end of the decade.
Miami Marlins
Why they can win the National League: Dee Gordon is one of the most fun players in the league. Giancarlo Stanton can be inconsistent, but when he's good he's really good. And hey, Ichiro is still playing baseball and is on this team. Veteran Leadership! Jose Fernandez is a darn good young pitcher & he's fun to watch because he doesn't follow the unwritten rules of baseball. Don Mattingly is the new manager & maybe he can finally get over the hump he couldn't surpass in Los Angeles.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Once you get past a couple of good players there's a whole lot of blah on this team. Not nearly enough depth, which is fine because once Miami gets some depth they'll trade it all anyway.
New York Mets
Why they can win the National League: The Mets have perhaps the best young pitching talent in the league. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom & Noah Syndergaard is as good a top 3 in a starting rotation as there is. Combine that with a potent lineup featuring the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, Lucus Duda & David Wright, and the Mets look like a good pick to repeat as NL Champions.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Harvey is injury-prone. deGrom's not happy with his contract. Sometimes these kids hit bumps in the road and things don't quite go as planned. The Mets look great on paper, but a couple of key injuries and some dissention amongst the ranks in the largest media market in the world could lead to problems.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why they can win the National League: They've added a lot of good talent to their farm system over the past year. There are a number of young Phillies like J.P. Crawford & Makiel Franco that fans have high hopes for in the future.
Why they won't make the playoffs: It's 2016 and they won't be ready for a couple of years. Until then it's going to be tough sledding in Philly.
Washington Nationals
Why they can win the National League: Bryce Harper is a freak of nature. Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the league. If players like Stephen Strasburg & Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, new manager Dusty Baker could have a winner on his hands. The addition of Daniel Murphy & Ben Revere brings two consistent bats to the fold and more people for Harper to knock in.
Why they won't make the playoffs: They should have last year, but went down the tubes at the end of the season & got to watch the Mets take their spot. The Nationals never seem to live up to their potential for one reason or another, and as much as I think Dusty got a bad rap in Cincinnati, he doesn't seem like the guy that will keep Bryce Harper under control & people from fighting in the dugout when things go south.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Why they can win the National League: They have one of the best collections of young talent in baseball. Anthony Rizzo & Kris Bryant are already superstars, Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young last year, and they brought in guys like Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward & John Lackey to make the talent pool even deeper. Joe Maddon might be the best manager in baseball. If you're a Cub fan, you have reason to believe that the curse is near the end of its run.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The Cubs have a long tradition of disappointment and not living up to expectations on the rare occasions that people expect something from them. They folded like a tent in the NLCS last season after getting too excited when they beat St. Louis in the NLDS. Are curses real? Maybe not, but pressure is, and pressure can kill a young team.
Cincinnati Reds
Why they can win the National League: Joey Votto's one of the best players in the league. Players like Devin Mesoraco, Zack Cozart & Homer Bailey that were injured most of last season should be on the field more. The rookie pitchers that started 77 straight games at the end of last season gained invaluable experience, and a couple of them (Anthony Desclafani, Rasiel Iglesais) looked like the real deal. Jay Bruce & Brandon Phillips are still on the team as I write this.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Their division is freaking loaded. Way too many games with teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh & St. Louis that they can't compete with. The starting pitchers might be good someday, but that's down the road. The exit of Aroldis Chapman means there's no real closer. The Reds have a lot of prospects thanks to the trades & maybe they'll pan out, but we won't find out in 2016.
Milwaukee Brewers
Why they can win the National League: A team from the NL Central has a pretty good chance of winning the league. Ryan Braun was MVP a few years ago. Manager Craig Counsell says the team had the best first week of spring training that he's ever seen.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Half of their payroll is going to Ryan Bruan & Matt Garza. On the bright side, they have the fifth best farm system in MLB, so maybe they'll be in contention in a couple of years.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why they can win the National League: Gerrit Cole & Francisco Liriano are a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the starting rotation. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte & Gregory Polanco could be one of the best outfields in baseball for the next few years. Clint Hurdle might be the best manager in baseball & always gets the most out of his teams.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Lots of games with the Cubs & Cardinals could bring their win total down & make things more difficult. Replacing Pedro Alverez with John Jaso might not work. The middle infield is thin with the departure of Neil Walker & Jung Ho Kang recovering from a broken leg. The Pirates should make the playoffs, but one or two injuries could sink their battleship.
St. Louis Cardinals
Why they can win the National League: Adam Wainwright should be back to lead a solid starting rotation bolstered by the addition of Mike Leake. Randal Grichuk should have been the Rookie of the Year last year according to St. Louis baseball fans, and they have plenty of other good young players like Stephen Piscotty, Kolten Wong & Matt Adams. Matt Carpenter? Matt Holliday? Pretty solid team here, as always.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The injury bug always seems to strike the Cardinals. It doesn't keep them from making the playoffs, but as teams like the Cubs & Pirates improve, it could lead to the Cardinals losing more games against them. Playing the Royals every year in interleague play is no longer an advantage. Also, I'm told that Mike Matheny isn't a very good manager even though he's made the playoffs every year he's been a manager.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why they can win the National League: The D-Backs already had two of the most talented players in the game in Paul Goldschmidt & A.J. Pollock & looked to be heading in the right direction before they kicked things up a notch in the off-season & added Zack Greinke to head up their starting rotation. With the National League featuring several long-term rebuilding teams, a team on the cusp like Arizona doesn't need to jump too many teams in order to get into contention.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The Giants & Dodgers are the two established teams in the NL West & have had the D-Backs' number in recent years. The starting rotation is unproven past Greinke & Shelby Miller. Platoons at second base, third base, shortstop & left field indicate a lack of exceptional talent beyond Goldschmidt & Pollock. The D-Backs are getting closer, but aren't quite there yet.
Colorado Rockies
Why they can win the National League: They play in Coors Field, an offensive paradise where it's easy to score runs. Carlos Gonzalez & Nolan Arenado are All-Star level players. Jorge De La Rosa is as useful as a pitcher that spends half the season in Denver can be. Nobody expected the Rockies to win the NL in 2007, and they did.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The players I named are probably going to be traded like Troy Tulowitzki was. The Rockies are in rebuild mode, as they usually are.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they can win the National League: Grienke might be gone, but they've still got Clayton Kershaw. They've got a good closer in Kenley Jansen, they got superstars up and down the lineup like Yasiel Puig & Adrian Gonzalez, and they got this kid Corey Seager that was on fire the last part of the season and looks to be the top shortstop in the game for years to come. And if you think Don Mattingly was the reason they didn't win in the playoffs, they replaced him with Dave Roberts, who won playoff games as a player.
Why they won't make the playoffs: Their outfield is a mess of players that swing back & forth from being really good & really bad. What can you expect from Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson or Carl Crawford? Or Puig? Nobody really knows, and that's why I can see the Dodgers in the World Series or not in the playoffs at all.
San Diego Padres
Why they can win the National League: Their front office thought they were close last year. Tyson Ross & James Shields are a solid top of the rotation. Matt Kemp should be better than he was last year. Alexei Ramirez is an upgrade at shortstop. Craig Kimbrel isn't around, but Fernando Rodney's a fun closer. They got a ton of prospects for Kimbrel. Justin Upton's gone, but having both Uptons on your baseball team is pretty overrated. The expectations are much lower this year than they were last year.
Why they won't make the playoffs: They'll at least live up to their expectations, but they won't be a playoff team. Wil Myers hasn't been great, the rest of the lineup is kinda there, and Ross & Shields can only pitch so many games.
San Francisco Giants
Why they can win the National League: It's an even-numbered year. 2010, 2012, 2014...2016? MadBum gets Johnny Cueto & Jeff Samardija to join him in the starting rotation. Buster Posey is still the best offensive catcher in baseball. Hunter Pence should be back for a full season, and he won't have to worry about the Stephanie Tanner curse anymore. Never count out a Bruce Bochy-led team, the guy knows exactly what buttons to push in the big games.
Why they won't make the playoffs: The Cueto that shows up in San Fran is more like the Cueto we saw in Kansas City last season than Cincinnati Cueto. Pence doesn't get over his injuries. Denard Span doesn't add much to the team because he's injured most of the time. Injuries bit the Giants hard last year & kept them out of the postseason...that seems to be the only way to stop San Francisco this decade.
Next time we're going to look at the American League, which is probably an even bigger crapshoot than the National League.
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